Sanders’ reversal of happiness – the latest Marquette Law School poll shows that Sanders Joe Biden lags behind by almost 30 points – comes after Biden’s consolidation of democratic support. It’s the same dynamic that led the former Vice President to victory on Super Tuesday in 14 states, then again in a handful of large states that followed.
The problem is not so much that Sanders’ Wisconsin support has collapsed, but that Biden’s support has quadrupled since February, said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School survey.
Should the predictions prevail, the Vermont senator would fall even further behind in the search for delegates and almost wipe out the already bleak prospect that Sanders could make a comeback. Biden’s already strong position would be strengthened – a victory in a battlefield country that both parties agree on is crucial to a general election victory if it were to consolidate his status as a suspected democratic candidate.
The background of the coronavirus crisis has given the first major state primary school an unprecedented level of chaos and uncertainty in three weeks. The momentum that Biden built up to March was stopped by the pandemic. But Sanders also hit a wall – the massive crowds and organization that gave Sanders buoyancy in 2016 have been sidelined. An outpouring of young voters helped Sanders advance in the waning days of the 2016 Wisconsin primary, but there’s a cloud over their expected turnout on Tuesday.
“With the switch from universities to online tuition, we are very unsure of how high voter turnout will be among younger voters. We cannot even be sure that they live in their university towns. The hurdle for them is getting a postal ballot and to work on just one extra shift, “said Franklin.” I’m confident that Biden has really increased and consolidated support, that’s clear in our data. “
While Franklin warned that the numbers could still fluctuate greatly under the given conditions, a blow in Wisconsin could be a devastating result for Sanders in a state that is symbolic to its followers. Sanders won the victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 before losing the state to Donald Trump in a confined space – a result that many Sanders supporters insist would have been different if Sanders had been the democratic candidate.
“Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. And 2020 is not 2016,” said Mike Tate, former leader of the state Democratic Party. “Despite all the problems, I see no reason to believe that Biden will not do well here. There is no magical coalition of people here that did not exist in other states that would show up and knock down biden. If you look at the states that Biden won in March, he also wins former Bernie voters. I have no reason to believe that Wisconsin will be that different. “
In addition to Biden’s strong African-American support, he attracts more white working-class voters, particularly union and union households. according to the results of the Marquette survey. Biden has already beaten Sanders in six states that the Vermont Senator won in 2016 – including blowout wins in neighboring Michigan and Minnesota.
Biden also easy won the border state of Illinois, which Sanders almost wore in 2016. The only nearby state where Sanders defeated Biden was Iowa, the first state to vote in a low-turnout caucus this year.
Many Wisconsin Democrats are reluctant to discuss the political dynamics of primary school, saying that this seemed almost trivial at a time when state and local officials were concerned with how to run a primary school amid the pandemic.
Wisconsin is the only one of the eleven states in which contests were originally scheduled for April, where Tuesday’s elections have not yet been finalized, despite requests from progressive groups, mayors, and employees to delay personal voting to prevent health risks and widespread staff shortages are. Sanders has asked Wisconsin to postpone its area codes; Biden doesn’t.
In the midst of volatility, the Democrats say that both campaigns are barely present or not at all.
“It doesn’t feel like we’re in the middle of a presidential campaign here,” said Ben Wikler, leader of the Democratic Party. “People are trying to figure out how to get food safely and check their mail for postal votes.”
While there are some campaign activities related to text messaging and digital organizing, the campaign and organization efforts were minimal, according to the Democrats.
“It’s very skeletal campaigns out there right now,” said Guarasci. “As far as I’ve seen, neither of the two campaigns runs a television. They don’t see these big megawatt fights for the state at the moment. It seems that the biden will benefit.”
“It’s like radio silence on the presidential primaries right now,” said Racine Mayor Cory Mason. “If we weren’t in the middle of a pandemic, we would see political rallies, large crowds gather … It makes sense to me that the consciousness of the people is being obscured by the corona virus. It is corona virus and toilet paper. I have enough to eat and when can I go back to work? “
Most of the activities that local officials have seen are the public support that Sanders and Biden offered to two education officers on the ballot.
Angela Lang, director of Milwaukee-based Black Leaders Organizing for Communities, said she thinks Biden has the advantage, but coronavirus de facto suppression of voters disproportionately affects black voters – an important part of that Base of the former vice president. She also highlighted the dedication of Sanders supporters. “There are strong Sanders supporters who say,” Look, elementary school is not over yet. Let’s hear our voices, “she said.
“Look, anything could go with this choice,” Lang warned. “It was turned upside down.”