The wheels of democracy never stop turning – not even in odd years. Between the 2020 presidential campaign and the 2022 midterm elections, hundreds of elections will be held in 2021 in states and cities whose election calendars do not match most other countries in the country. There will also be at least four special elections for the US house that could not only affect the narrowness of the Democrats eight-seat majority But also give us an early indication of the political environment in 2022.
Here’s an introduction to the top races you should know about this year – and if that’s not enough to whet your voting appetite, subscribe to mine Google Calendar of obscure choices for an even more complete schedule.
Governor and other state-level elections
The biggest election of 2021 is likely for the governor of Virginia. This once red state has zoomed to the left in recent years – President Biden won it by 10 points in 2020 and did not elect a Republican any nationwide office since 2009 – So Democrats start as favorites to win, but the race could be close if the national environment becomes more favorable to Republicans. In addition, since Virginia governors cannot run for re-election, there are contests for nominations for both parties, largely reflecting the national differences in each party. The Democratic front runner, former Governor Terry McAuliffe, channels Biden as a moderate white man with a lot of experience and notoriety. But just as in the 2020 presidential primary election, more progressive and demographically diverse candidates (including two who would each be the first black female governor in US history) are advocating a new generation of leaders. The democratic primary is scheduled for June 8th. The Republicans are now considering how closely they want to bond with the former President Donald Trump and to reconcile the prevailing grievances such as “break culture” with traditional Republican messages. A multi-site convention on May 8th will determine whether their candidate is former State House Speaker Kirk Cox. Pro-Trump pariah Senator Amanda Chase or two self-financing businesspeople (or one of the other minor candidates). The general election will take place on November 2nd.
The only other state with regularly scheduled gubernatorial elections in 2021 is New JerseyA race that Democrats should easily win. Biden won New Jersey by 16 points, and Democratic Governor Phil Murphy (running for re-election) has an approval / disagreement rate of 59 to 36 percent per year Stockton University survey.
However, there will very likely be at least one other governor election that will be added to the calendar under unusual circumstances. Activists in California have gathered 2.1 million signatures in support of Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall; If at least 1,495,709 of them are found valid, a recall election will take place sometime this fall. Judging by that Rhetoric so farThe campaign would likely be a downcast affair, but Newsom starts it off in good shape: Despite its mediocre approval rating, 56 percent of Californians are in one recent survey said they would not go so far as to elect him out of office. At least that could be because all the major candidates who want to replace him – like former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, and 2018 gubernatorial candidate John Cox – are Republicans and California is a thoroughly blue state. This isn’t the only potential off-cycle choice we saw in 2021: there’s still a good chance the long simmering recall campaign is going against it Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy will qualify to vote This year too.
While the governors’ races will likely be the hardest hit country-level elections in 2021, there are notable races for this year too Deputy Governor, Attorney General, Head of State of Public Education, Parliament, Judgeships and Electoral measures. Keep an eye on them Virginia In particular the House of Representatives. If Republicans can switch the six seats they need to take control of the Chamber, they will break total Democratic control of the Virginia state government, even if the Democrats win governorship.
Special house elections
There are currently four vacancies in the US House of Representatives to be filled by special election: the 2nd District of Louisiana on April 24th, the 6th of Texas on May 1st, the 1st of New Mexico on June 1st and the 11th from Ohio on November 2nd.
The Louisiana 2nd District and Ohio 11th district are both safe democratic seats, but they could vote very differently species of Democrats. The Louisiana race is a runoff (the first round was last month) between the state of Sens. Troy Carter and Karen Carter Peterson (no relationship). Carter is a moderate Democrat, while Peterson is more progressive in politics. And in Ohio, the front runner is in Democratic Elementary School on August 3rd probably former state senator Nina Turner, the President of our Revolution who became a nationally recognized progressive leader by co-chairing Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign. Turner’s main antagonist is Shontel Brown, a member of Cuyahoga County Council, but there are five other candidates in the running as well.
On the other side of the coin, either party could win Texas 6th Districtalthough Republicans are likely to be preferred: Loud Daily Kos electionsTrump won the district by 51 to 48 percent in 2020. all 23 candidates will run on the same ballot, and if no one gets a majority of the votes, the top two players, regardless of party, will advance to a runoff. Survey propose Republican Susan Wright, widow of late MP Ron Wright (whose death created the vacancy for this seat), is the front runner. The most likely Democrat to grab the runner-up spot is likely 2018 candidate Jana Lynne Sanchez, but a Republican MP like Jake Ellzey could do well enough to completely expel the Democrats from the second round.
The fourth special option – for that New Mexico 1st District – Unlikely to create much tension: Democratic MP Melanie Stansbury is the strong favorite to defeat Republican Senator Mark Moores in a Biden District, who won 23 points. However, it will still be worth noting to consider the final margin between candidates in this and all other special elections this year. Again, it is generally a good sign for a party’s medium-term prospects if it regularly beats its weight in special elections that lead to them. For example, Democratic candidates, although not always victorious, consistently outperformed the normal party-political leanings of their districts in the 2017/18 special elections, forecasting halfway through 2018, when they would receive a net 40 house seats and seven governorates.
After all, countless cities will hold local elections in 2021, including at least 548 they are mayors. The most momentous such choice (in terms of Number of people concerned), and undoubtedly one of the most interesting, takes place in New York City on June 22nd. (The winner of the democratic primary on that day will be a big favorite in the general election on November 2 in the deep blue Big Apple.) The field that is supposed to replace outgoing Mayor Bill de Blasio is ideologically, professionally and demographically diverse: the technocrat and 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang leads the polls. City Comptroller Scott Stringer and lawyer Maya Wiley argue over the mantle of the “most progressive” ones. Brooklyn District President Eric Adams has a regional base based on his extensive experience in local politics. and former Wall Street manager Ray McGuire has raised at least $ 7.5 million. To make things even more unpredictable, the race will be run with a leaderboard election for the first time.
There are too many other mayor’s competitions to preview, but some deserve a brief mention. In two huge cities in Texas there are strong clashes between left and right – rarities in modern urban politics. in the San Antonio (the seventh largest city in the country with a population greater than Hawaii) is the conservative Greg Brockhouse Looking for a rematch with progressive Mayor Ron Nirenberg after losing the 2019 race by just 2 percentage points. And to Interstate 35 Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price is one of only two Republican mayors left in the country’s 25 most populous cities her retirement this year caused that first open seat race there for 10 years. The result could be a barometer of how persistently blue urban and suburban areas of Texas became in the Trump era, and in the event of a democratic turnaround, cement the national trend of cities becoming uniformly democratic. Both races will take place on May 1st and each will go to a runoff if no one gets a majority.
On the other end of the spectrum, the only question too SeattleThe next mayor is whether he or she leans or left very tilted to the left. The field includes former city council president Bruce Harrell, whom the Seattle Times called “A Swing Vote Between the Council Activist and Moderate Wings”; former State Representative Jessyn Farrell, ret Transit and environmental activist Who is close to organized work? City Council President Lorena González, ret progressive who has often collide with outgoing Mayor Jenny Durkan; and Colleen Echohawk, executive director of the Seattle Club, a Durkan ally. González and Echohawk would also be the first women of color to lead Seattle. The field will be narrowed down to two candidates on August 3, with a second round of voting on November 2.
All over the country a city with one dark history of racism also has the opportunity to make history with his mayor race on September 21 (area code) and November 2 (parliamentary election). Boston never elected a mayor who isn’t a white man, he’s who Five main competitors so far are all men of color, and three are women. Kim Janey, a black woman who became acting mayor When ex-Mayor Marty Walsh stepped down to become Biden’s Minister of Labor, it was still like that consider a campaign and would become one of the heavyweights of the race in an instant if she chose.