Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly poll summary.
As President Biden and other Democrats work to survive a collective draft budget, the party’s members are at odds over the topline spending number, with numbers in between $ 1.5 trillion to $ 3.5 trillion. Biden said it was probably the bill will land in the $ 2 trillion rangewhich means the progressives’ priorities are sure to be shrunk, trimmed or revised. Progressive legislators have signaled that they are willing to compromise, but some warn against it at least one area They will refuse to give in: climate-related regulations.
Climate change could thus prove to be one of the main tweaks between progressives and centrists in the party. From the perspective of the progressives, the law of reconciliation is seems to be the federal government’s best shooter in combating the rapidly escalating climate crisis in the near future. And New York MP Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said climate regulations are not something Congress can do “Kick down the line“Meanwhile, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, one of the key centrists needed to get the bill through, has already successfully blocked some of Biden’s priorities,” he said rejects the primary climate regulation of the current draft law: Pay utilities to move to clean energy.
So where does the public stand on the fight against climate change? Already before recent devastating weather events, American said for a long time that the federal government is not doing enough. And polls now suggest that public opinion is more on the progressive side. But the big caveat here is how Americans prioritize climate change action over other issues.
Overall, a majority of Americans want climate action. According to a newly published survey by Monmouth University, 60 percent of US adults said climate change is “very” or “extremely” important to the federal government. In addition, 56 percent of adults in the United States said climate change was a “very serious” problem – up from 41 percent in the same survey in December 2015. One recently published Study from the Pew Research Center found that 60 percent of adults in the United States said they were concerned about the personal effects of climate change.
The Republican legislature did become a little more open on the climate proposals, but there is still a large partisan divide on this issue. Monmouth found that only 30 percent of Republicans said they support government action against climate change, compared with 92 percent of Democrats. A Gallup poll released earlier this week yielded similar results. Gallup combined survey data from 2017 to 2021 and found that 65 percent of US adults said they are “very much” or “fairly” concerned about global warming. For the Democrats, that number rose to 91 percent; for the Republicans it was only 32 percent.
However, other surveys suggest that there is broad support for the adoption of specific federal policies to combat climate change. Pro one 2020 Poll by Pew, 79 percent of US adults said their country should give priority to developing alternative energy sources. 78 percent of Republicans and 90 percent of Democrats supported giving companies a tax credit for developing carbon capture / storage, while 64 percent of Republicans and 93 percent of Democrats wanted tougher restrictions on carbon emissions from power plants. In fact, a majority of Republicans – and an overwhelming majority of Democrats – endorsed all five climate policies, the Pew asked.
In addition, recent research has shown that the climate-related proposals in the draft budget are very popular with the public. Corresponding a study from the University of Maryland, which analyzed several polls on proposals in the reconciliation budget, 85 percent of registered voters supported the reinstatement of the Civil Protection Corps and 83 percent supported the creation of an employment program that would hire unemployed coal workers to shut down coal mines and clean up the countryside.
But here’s the catch: Americans may believe that fighting climate change is important, but that doesn’t mean they think it is most important point. In the aforementioned Monmouth survey, topics such as jobs and unemployment (77 percent), the COVID-19 pandemic (72 percent) and racial inequality (65 percent) topped the list of “extremely important” or “very important” Concerns raised by the American federal government. A Politico / Harvard poll The study conducted in mid-September found that climate-related spending was not among the five “extremely important” issues US adults wanted to include in the budget. The top priority climate issue – increasing spending on conservation efforts to curb forest fires and carbon emissions – came sixth, while policies to encourage people to buy electric cars came last on the list of 20 priorities.
Climate change policies must also overcome other obstacles. The oil and gas industry is Lobbying against some of the bills Climate-related proposals, for example. And Manchin, who has to sign the final language of the bill, represents West Virginia, which is one of the nation’s leading manufacturers of money and natural gas. He is currently the top recipient of campaign donations from the coal, mining, and oil and gas industries, per OpenSecrets. He also has personal financial stakes in the fossil fuel industry.
However, given that progressive Democrats successfully prevented the Infrastructure Bill from being passed last week, it is noteworthy that they are already pulling another line in the sand. We will keep an eye on what is cut and what goes into the final bill.
Other polling bites
- A Pew Research Center survey in September noted that 67 percent of Republicans would like to see former President Donald Trump as a major national political figure. That’s 10 percentage points more than a poll Pew conducted shortly after the January 6th Uprising in the U.S. Capitol.
- One recently Emerson College / Nexstar Media Survey showed a close race for the upcoming gubernatorial election in Virginia, with 49 percent of the likely voters supporting Democrat Terry McAuliffe and 48 percent supporting Republican Glenn Youngkin. FiveThirtyEights, McAuliffe’s updated average of Virginia gubernatorial polls is currently 47.5 percent and Youngkin at 45 percent.
- Americans want to get scary again this Halloween. Per a new Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of adults said they wanted to celebrate Halloween this year, 14 points more than those who wanted to celebrate 2020. This year’s proportion of adults celebrating is more in line with pre-COVID-19 levels – 57 percent of Americans surveyed said they were celebrating Halloween in 2019.
- A majority of Americans view both major political parties negatively. Per a recently published Gallup poll, 55 percent of the adults surveyed said they were against the Democratic Party and 56 percent against the Republican Party. That being said, the favor of the GOP (now 40 percent) rose 3 points between January and September, while the favor of the Democratic Party (now 43 percent) fell 5 points over the same period.
- The popularity of Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema could suffer from her opposition to the Democratic proposed spending bill a new Morning Consult survey. Sinema’s approval among voters in Arizona has fallen 6 percentage points from 48 percent to 42 percent since the beginning of the year. This decline left the rejection of Sinema among the voters with 42 percent equal to the approval of the voters for it. Sinema’s rejection rating among democrats have fallen by 20 points to 40 percent since the beginning of the year. However, their disapproval from the Democrats was offset by their improved 9-point approval from the Republicans.
- As President Biden and the Democrats continue to negotiate the Reconciliation Act – and withhold voting on the bipartisan infrastructure bill – support for how Biden has handled the country’s infrastructure rebuilding has fallen, according to a new one ABC News / Ipsos poll. A majority of Americans (55 percent) agreed Biden’s use of US infrastructure, but that’s 7 points less than in August. Democrats hope to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the reconciliation bill until the end of October.
- Facebook paused the development of Instagram Kids – a version of the app specially designed for children under the age of 13. The September 27 hiatus followed the leak of internal studies – recently revealed Whistleblower Frances Haugen – that had found that Instagram has had a negative impact on the mental health of teenage girls. For some parents, taking a break from Instagram Kids may be a relief. One recently Consult survey in the morning found that 53 percent of parents with children ages 5-13 either strongly or tend to disapprove of Instagram Kids creation. In addition, 87 percent of these parents said they were concerned about the impact social media had on children’s mental health.
- A slim majority of American adults (51 percent) said there should be no more government regulation over social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. Sixty-one percent of Republicans agreed, while 59 percent of Democrats disagreed and believed that these platforms should be more regulated Quinnipiac University survey.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Approval Tracker, 44.2 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s job as president, while 48.3 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -4.1 points). At this point last week, 44.8 percent were approved and 48.6 percent rejected (a net approval rating of -3.8 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 45.0 percent and a disapproval rate of 49.1 percent (a net approval rating of -4.1 points).
On our average of the general polls in Congressional polls, Democrats currently lead Republicans with 2.8 percentage points (44.7 percent and 41.9 percent, respectively). A week ago, the Democrats led the Republicans with 3.3 points (45.0 percent to 41.7 percent). At that time last month, voters preferred the Democrats to the Republicans with 2.8 points (43.9 percent versus 41.0 percent).