Like other emails from Virginia Democrats, the letters signed by Carville have popped the panic button in recent weeks as the race between McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin intensified. Many of them are standard dishes and try to create a sense of urgency with the basic donors.
But others highlight a bigger concern: Carville’s hair. The notoriously bald strategist who became a political star told supporters of the former governor of Virginia that he would “pull my hair out” on both September 1st and 2nd. At the end of the month it was too late. “I won’t have a lot of hair anymore,” was the subject line on September 27th.
Bombast and hyperbole are nothing new in online fundraising. But in Virginia, the embassies carry special weight, where Democrats have been on the wrong end of an enthusiasm gap for their constituents and are struggling to keep up financially with a wealthy, self-funding GOP candidate who has already given his campaign over 16 Million dollars.
“Cook turned it upside down,” Carville said in an interview, referring to the well-known election forecasters for the Cook Political Report. “And I think the McAuliffe people weren’t upset at all. I think election history is not good at all for the party that wins the presidency. “
The Carville emails were at least successful in raising funds. Carville’s emails raised half a million dollars, according to the campaign. And apart from McAuliffe himself and Abrams, Carville is the leading email signatory fundraiser.
Why did he loan his name to dozens of fundraisers for McAuliffe, his old buddy at Clintonworld? “Because I’m an email signature slut,” he said, chuckling.
The Democrats continue to focus intensely on fueling their base on the home stretch. In most of the public polls, GOP voters were more enthusiastic about the upcoming election. The last one was a poll from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University on Friday, which McAuliffe showed by 4 points within the poll’s margin of error. However, the poll also found that Republican voters were more enthusiastic about the race than Democratic voters, which is in line with other public polls in the race.
“This is really, really important, and especially harmful to the Democrats,” said Ron Wright, Republican Central Committee member and co-chair of the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum. Wright said he believes Youngkin’s recent focus on education, with the Republican campaign pounding McAuliffe in TV commercials, would further stimulate Republican voters and independents.
The Democrats are also struggling with Biden’s falling state polls. A Fox News poll in late September in the state Biden even had 49 percent of the registered voters both approving and disapproving, in one state he won with 10 points. And national polls recently showed him underwater – something McAuliffe himself confirmed last week.
“As you know, we’re facing a lot of headwinds from Washington,” McAuliffe said on a Video call with followers, spread by Republicans. “The president is sadly unpopular here in Virginia today, so we have to prevail.”
All eyes are on the state’s early voting, which began about two weeks ago, for the first signs of who will be out until the rest of the election. It is the first gubernatorial election where every voter can choose whether to vote earlier by mail or in person.
So far, according to information, over 255,000 people have voted early Data from the Virginia Public Access Project. That’s already more people who voted earlier than in the 2017 gubernatorial election, before the new electoral laws came into force.
Both campaigns have recently started pouring resources to encourage voters to go to the polls or cast an early postal vote, especially since many voters are not yet familiar with the process.
“Everyone tries to make people aware of it because we always got the chance to vote earlier, but you had to have an excuse and it wasn’t used well,” said Ben Tribbett, a longtime Democratic strategist from Virginia. “So it’s something that is a little bit new to the state.”
During the entire campaign, the two men almost equaled each other in fundraising. In the most recent fundraising period, which runs from July 1st to August 8th. 31, Youngkin raised more: $ 15.7 million on a $ 4 million personal loan, up from $ 11.5 million for McAuliffe, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project. McAuliffe had double Youngkins cash available, $ 12.6 million versus $ 6 million, though the Republican candidate could write another check at any time to fill the gap.
It’s a significant turning point since 2013, when McAuliffe was able to overwhelm then Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, overtaking him significantly, and overrun the Republican on television on his way to becoming the first politician to win the Virginia gubernatorial race while his party controlled the whites House in decades.
Both state parties also spend extensively in the race. During that time, the Republican Governors Association gave Youngkin nearly $ 4 million, while McAuliffe received $ 2.5 million from his Democratic counterpart.
Since the beginning of September, McAuliffe has outperformed his adversary for advertising. Ad Impact, an ad tracking company, found nearly $ 12.1 million in spending from McAuliffe’s campaign, compared with $ 9.4 million. (These sums include digital advertising expenses.)
But this latest benefit comes only after Youngkin has been largely unchallenged on the airwaves for months. Youngkin started a steady stream of television commercials immediately after winning his party’s nomination in May and has not let up since. McAuliffe, meanwhile, was obscure as he won the party’s nomination in early June through late July, but along with his Republican opponent, he bombarded the airwaves of the state with television commercials.
According to AdImpact data, the two have broadcast over 6,700 TV spots from the beginning of October until Friday afternoon. That number is split almost exactly down the middle, with Youngkin holding a lead of 92 ads.