From a distance of 30,000 feet, the President’s race looks similar to what we did at the start of our presidential election forecast in August. Joe Biden has a 3 in 4 chance of winning compared to President Trump’s roughly 1 in 4 shots, according to FiveThirtyEight forecast. Biden’s odds dipped to 3-2 after the Republican National Convention on Aug. 31, but overall his odds were in the low to mid 70 percent range. In contrast, Trump’s chances have improved especially in their mid to high 20s.
But there was still quite a big move among the topline numbers in some major battlefield states, and the news was mostly good for Biden. If we look at how much Biden’s chances have changed in states where both he and Trump have won at least 1:10 since the forecast started on Aug. 12, Biden has improved his chances in 17 states out of 20. In some cases, Biden’s improvement was significant – for example, +15 percentage points in Minnesota, +12 points in Arizona, and +10 points in Wisconsin. In comparison, Trump’s chances have really only improved in Florida, although he hasn’t lost much of ground in states like Georgia and Ohio, which could suggest Biden’s election wins won’t be The expansive. (Trump is still leading in Texas, for example, although Biden improved there.)
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But Biden’s improvement in Arizona is particularly noteworthy as Arizona is a cornerstone of most Electoral College cards that Trump wins on. That means that if Trump carries the state, he will win the election 59 percent of the time, according to our forecast. But if Biden Arizona wins, Trump has less than a 7 percent chance of winning overall. And three polls released in the past few days show that Biden is ahead in Grand Canyon State, albeit with varying margins. A CBS News / YouGov poll found him by 3 points, while a Gravis Marketing Survey only gave him a 2 point lead over Trump. But one OH Predictive Insights Survey gave Biden a much larger 10-point advantage, 52 percent to 42 percent.
Meanwhile, Biden’s improvement in Minnesota is also bad news for Trump as a campaign looked at Minnesota for a long time as a potential target to expand the map – The president just lost the state by about 2 points in 2016. Minnesota, however, seems to be steadily moving away from Trump. A ABC News / Washington Post poll The version released today gave Biden a whopping 16 points, 57 to 41 percent, lead among likely voters. And two separate polls released this weekend by CBS News / YouGov and the New York Times / Siena College Each of them were 9 points clear of Biden in Minnesota, 50 to 41 percent. Still a survey by Morning Consult published yesterday could raise the Trump campaign’s hopes for a breakthrough in Minnesota as Biden’s lead was only 4 points. And Trump is doing better in Wisconsin, even though he’s still an underdog there, as recent polls show that Biden has a pretty big advantage. A CNN / SSRS poll released yesterday gave Biden a 10-point lead while one ABC News / Washington Post poll Today gave Biden a 6 point lead. And last weekend the New York Times / Siena College found Bid there by 5 points.
Florida is the only battlefield state where Trump’s odds have increased noticeably, but that’s a major silver lining for the president as Florida winning is an opportunity for Trump’s odds. If Trump wins the Sunshine State, he’ll win the presidency in 57 percent of our forecast simulations, while a Biden win would give Trump less than 2 percent shot at the win. And at this point, polls in Florida continue to give Trump a good chance of winning the state, even though they weren’t generally positive. Perhaps most notable of all is a poll published by Tuesday Monmouth University found Depending on the turnout, the likely voters increase by 3 to 5 points. However, another poll made yesterday Florida Atlantic University found The two candidates were in a dead heat at 50 percent after undecided voters were urged to pick a candidate. Hence, Florida remains extremely competitive at this point as Trump gains ground there.
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Trump’s chances haven’t improved much elsewhere, but it’s worth noting that his standing hasn’t really deteriorated in some right-wing battlefield states that Democrats have watched, like Georgia and Ohio. This is important to Trump because not only would losing one state dramatically affect his overall chances of winning (Trump would have a roughly 1 percent chance of winning if he lost in either state), but it also signals that this election may not have a breakout is Democrats make states like Georgia and Texas blue.
Bottom line: The general election picture hasn’t changed much since the forecast started in mid-August, but we’ve seen some real changes in a number of key battlefield states. The problem for the president is that most of these shifts benefited Biden, with the exception of the all-important state of Florida. Trump remains very controversial but he is an underdog for re-election at this point.