Boris Johnson is right that there is another wave of Covid-19 coronavirus cases in the UK this summer, an expert said.
And he warned that a sharp spike in cases could force the change of cut-off dates on the prime minister’s roadmap to end restrictions.
Professor Adam Finn of the University of Bristol and a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization (JCVI) told BBC Breakfast: “I’m afraid he’s right, yes. The models we saw at JCVI clearly indicate a summer surge in cases where the lockdown is relaxed, as there are still many people in the adult population who have not been vaccinated and therefore start getting the infection between to transfer the two others. “
He said there is “a wide range of uncertainties” about how big the wave will be, “because it depends on how quickly the vaccine rollout continues, how many vaccines are made available, and how many people sign up to be vaccinated . ” and it also depends on how people behave as the lockdown is gradually eased.
“If people get too far with it too quickly, things will show up sooner.” I’m afraid the feeling that the problem is over is flawed. We are still in a vulnerable situation and there are still a significant number of people who, if so, could potentially be harmed by this infection. “
When asked if the next changes planned for May 17th may need to be adjusted, Prof. Finn said, “This is a balancing act, isn’t it? People want to be certain and companies want to know how to plan, but then again, I think this has always been presented as a tentative schedule based on what actually happens.
“I think if there are significant increases in certain cases in some parts of the country, they may need to be adjusted to prevent the situation from taking effect.
“It’s a little difficult to figure out because it’s uncertain by definition.”
Regarding the variant first found in India, Professor Finn said, “If we all gradually become immune, either through infection or vaccination, variants of the virus that can withstand that immunity will outweigh – they will become one Have advantage over the old versions if you want. “
He said he was “somewhere in between” what would happen to vaccines and variants, adding, “I don’t think we’re going to see a complete breakdown and a” back to point one “situation.
“I think the immunity we already have to infections and vaccines will continue to be useful, but it will be eroded and there will be a point where we will have to reformulate vaccines to keep up with the changes in the virus . “
Regarding Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine and an association with rare blood clots, Prof. Finn said it was important to keep people informed.
“We need people who are confident that they are being told the full story about these vaccines. We all want them to be perfect. They are very, very effective, but there are some who show signs of these very rare side effects, and so do we.” it is important that people know about this so that they can understand the whole picture.
“But I want to emphasize that these vaccines are very effective and these side effects are extremely rare.”
Real-world data from Israel and the UK, “where many people have been vaccinated,” show whether shocks against variants work.
He also said that experts “will look very carefully to see if there are any cases where people have been vaccinated who have been vaccinated and whether these particular variants are more likely to occur in this context”.