Poll (s) of the week
President Trump’s refusal to accept the election result has sparked distrust of the election, especially among Republicans.
For a new one Monmouth University surveyAbout three in four Republicans now have doubts about the fairness of the 2020 presidential election, even though it does no proof that the electoral process has been compromised in a way that could affect the outcome. And as you can see in the table below, suspicions among Republicans have skyrocketed since election day.
Monmouth is not the only pollster who finds a high level of suspicion among Republicans, too. ONE YouGov / Economist poll This week found that 73 percent of Republicans had little or no confidence that the elections were fair Morning Consult / Politico survey found that 67 percent of Republicans felt that the 2020 election was either “likely” or “definitely” not free and fair.
It’s important to emphasize that all three respondents found that the majority of Americans accepted the results – around 6 in 10 – but what is worrying is that only around 4 in 10 said they were very confident that the election would take place fair and accurate.
This is worrying because, as my colleague Perry Bacon Jr. wrote earlier this week about Trump’s refusal to admit, there are now very real questions about American democracy and whether it will stay intact.
Of course, this is not the first time Trump has tried to sow doubt in the democratic process. Before and after the 2016 election, Trump falsely claimed that millions of undocumented immigrants would vote in the elections, or that “people who died 10 years ago still vote” when they did never any evidence that these claims were true. And as was the case before 2016 In the election, Republicans were again more likely than Democrats to believe these fraudulent claims when they voted.
However, the main difference between now and 2016 is that after the election, the majority of Republicans are still not ready to accept the result. That was not the case for Democrats in 2016.
|Area code (15.10.16)||After the election (01/28/17)|
|population||confident||not sure||confident||not sure||Diff.|
Lest we believe that Republicans are the only ones who tend to influence their view of the electoral process with the outcome, polls show that some Democrats lost confidence in the election after Trump won in 2016. Still, a majority of Democrats (as well as Republicans and Independents) believed that the votes were accurately counted after the election. The finding in this last round of elections that roughly three out of four Republicans disbelieve in the electoral process is a huge departure from the public opinion polls found after the last election.
It is difficult to know what this means for American democracy – Biden’s claim to the presidency doesn’t seem to be in real jeopardy – but these first post-election polls show the ramifications for sowing disinformation in the American electoral process.
Other choice bites
- The presidential election may be over, but the polls of Georgia’s two runoff elections to the US Senate, slated for January 5 and which will determine which party controls the chamber, have already begun. We have had two polls since election day. one of Remington Research Group and another off InsiderAdvantageshowing that the races could be close. The polls, both by right-wing pollsters, show the special election between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Kelly Loeffler could be a mistake with candidates practically bound. ONE third survey from just the special campaign sponsored by a Republican PAC, Loeffler is pointing something ahead. In the other race, the Remington poll shows incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue leading his opponent Jon Ossoff. The InsiderAdvantage poll shows the race is a tie. However, this is only the first of many more surveys. So keep an eye on our survey database through January for a more complete overview of the surveys.
- 58 percent of Americans said they would get a COVID-19 vaccine if an FDA-approved vaccine were currently available Gallup poll Performed at the end of October. Vaccine readiness had declined in September due in part to a sharp drop in support among Democrats, but now the proportion of Democrats willing to get vaccinated is recovering while the proportion of Republicans and Independents willing to get themselves vaccinated has remained constant.
- ONE HarrisX survey The study, published Tuesday, found that 77 percent of Americans felt that Congress should pass a coronavirus bailout package as soon as possible, while 23 percent said one isn’t needed because the economy is recovering on its own. This includes a majority of Republicans (64 percent) and Democrats (89 percent).
- ONE SurveyMonkey survey Conducted earlier this month found that 37 percent of Americans were planning on celebrating Thanksgiving with friends or family outside of their household. And after a Survey from Ohio State University’s Wexner Medical CenterWhile the majority of Americans plan to take precautions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 while they celebrate the holidays, not everyone appears follow the guidelines of the CDC: 38 percent said they will likely attend a meeting with more than 10 people. Another third said they won’t ask their guests to wear masks, and 27 percent said they are unlikely to follow social distance by staying three feet apart before and after dinner.
- The Romanians will vote on December 6th to elect a new parliament. Polls show that the Social Democratic Party, a populist left of the Center Party, which swept the country in the 2016 elections 46 percent of the vote and won more seats than any other party, should lose seats this year. The party that originally ruled as part of a coalition government but lost control after a Vote of no confidence amid corruption scandals and protests, it was replaced by a coalition led by the more centrist National Liberal Party. According to Politicos average of the pollsThe National Liberal Party, which received just 20 percent of the vote in 2016, leads with 32 percent of the vote, followed by the Social Democratic Party with 27 percent. Several other parties take 15 percent or less of the polls.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Approval Tracker, 44.3 percent of Americans are in favor of Trump’s work as president, while 52.4 percent are against (a net approval rating of -8.1 points). At this point last week, 44.6 percent agreed and 52.3 percent disagreed (for a net approval rating of -7.7 points). A month ago, Trump had an approval rate of 42.7 percent and a rejection rate of 54.1 percent, which corresponds to a net approval rate of -11.3 points.