Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly survey.
Poll (s) of the week
The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg opened a rare post on the US Supreme Court, and Republicans are quick to occupy the seat. President Trump says he will nominate a replacement for Ginsburg on Saturdayand Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has a vote promised on the nominee this year. (And it looks like he could have the votes to confirm it.) But polls conducted after Ginsburg’s death indicate that this may be an unpopular decision.
So far, we’ve identified 12 polls that asked one version of the question, “Should Ginsburg’s seat be occupied by Trump this year or the 2020 presidential winner next year?” And on average, 52 percent of those polled said they should wait, while only 39 percent said Trump should take the seat now.
|The seat should be occupied by …|
|Pollsters||Events||Trump now||the 2020 winner|
|SurveyMonkey / Insider||18.-19. September||28%||45%|
|Data for progress||18.-19. September||39||53|
|Reuters / Ipsos *||September 19-20||46||62|
|Consult tomorrow / Politico||September 18-20||37||50|
|Global strategy group / navigator||September 19-21||36||56|
|HuffPost / YouGov||September 19-22||36||49|
|The Economist / YouGov||September 20-22||41||46|
|CNN / SSRS||September 21-22||41||59|
|Yahoo News / YouGov||September 21-23||40||53|
If this breakdown sounds familiar, it’s because they have both Trump approval polls (43 percent approval versus 53 percent average disapproval average) and national horse racing polls between Trump and Joe Biden (which average 50 percent Biden) accurately reproduces. Trump 43 percent).
In other words, partiality is likely to determine people’s opinion about when the Supreme Court position should be filled. You’ve also seen that in the crosstabs of almost every poll this week: On average, 78 percent of Republican respondents said Trump should fill the job now, while 84 percent of Democratic respondents said it should be because of the election winner. (That is a Inversion of 2016when Democrats generally believed that then-President Obama should have occupied Justice Antonin Scalia while Republicans backed the winner’s decision.)
But this problem is also a good example of when the wording of questions can really affect the results of a survey. For example, Americans had a different opinion on whether Trump should appoint a replacement and whether the Senate should approve them if he does. For example, registered voters said YouGov with a 51-42 percent margin that Trump shouldn’t appoint a new judge, but they were more divided when asked: “If President Donald Trump appoints a new Supreme Court Justice before the President’s inauguration in January 2021, you think , the US Senate should the candidate be confirmed? “: 45 percent said yes, 48 percent said no. Similar, Global Strategy Group / GBAO / Navigator found that registered voters 56 to 36 percent believed that the election winner should be responsible for nominating Ginsburg’s successor – but when asked what they think should happen if Trump nominates someone anyway, 42 percent said it was right for the Senate to vote on the candidate while 47 percent thought it was wrong.
Some polls also asked whether the Ginsburg seat should be occupied before Election Day (November 3), while others asked if it should be occupied before Inauguration Day (January 20). And while many voters would prefer to wait until after the election, that doesn’t mean they will necessarily refuse Trump to nominate a candidate. By doing SurveyMonkey / Insider SurveyForty-five percent of registered voters agreed that “whoever wins the election should appoint the nearest judiciary and the Senate should not vote until the election is decided,” while 28 percent said the Senate should do it “as soon as possible before 2020 “Confirm election.” However, another 13 percent said this “should happen after the 2020 elections, but before the next inauguration, regardless [of whether] President Trump wins or loses. “That suggests that 58 percent of voters want to wait until after the election, but 41 percent of voters want Trump to be the one to take the seat.
In a similar way Reuters / Ipsos returned two seemingly contradicting results: First, 62 percent of adults (including 49 percent of Republicans) agreed with the statement: “The election winner should be able to appoint Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s successor to the Supreme Court.” (Only 24 percent disagreed.) However, the survey participants also found that 46 to 40 percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement: “President Donald Trump should propose a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg before his term of office expires.” that Americans recognize Trump’s right to nominate a replacement but do not want it to be confirmed until we know the results of the election. Or it could be that many Republicans believe Trump will win the election, so the two statements don’t contradict them.
Another good example of how the formulation of questions could have affected people’s answers comes from The Economist / YouGovwho asked, “Do you think Donald Trump should nominate someone to fill the position or should the seat remain vacant until a new president takes office in January 2021?” Refers to the seat as “stay[ing] vacant, ”instead of saying the election winner would fill it, would have told respondents that the Supreme Court would be understaffed for at least four months in this scenario; The use of the phrase “new president” could also have implied “not Trump”. This could explain why this was one of the best polls for McConnell and Trump: Respondents supported waiting to occupy the seat by only 46 to 41 percent ahead.
Overall, it seems clear that the verification process is now somewhere between a slightly unpopular decision and a very unpopular one. However, it is unclear whether it will actually harm Republicans at the ballot box. As I wrote on Tuesday, only 5 percent of registered voters told SurveyMonkey / Insider that the Supreme Court vacancy made them less confident, and a large number of respondents told Reuters / Ipsos that it would have no impact on their presidential election .
And while the choice of who will succeed Ginsburg is important to many Americans – “very important” to 52 percent of them and “something important” to 23 percent, according to The Economist / YouGov – it may not be the case how important as the other issues on which they have already based their vote. According to the HuffPost / YouGov pollOnly 21 percent of voters said the Supreme Court was one of the top three priorities – well behind the economy (42 percent), the coronavirus (41 percent) and healthcare (34 percent).
Other choice bites
- One Ipsos / ABC News poll Found 69 percent of Americans do not trust Trump’s assurances that a coronavirus vaccine would be effective; Only 27 percent trusted the president “very” or “well”. In addition, the pollster found that the number of Americans who said they were likely to receive the vaccine fell from 74 percent in May to 64 percent in September.
- According to a Harvard Institute of Politics poll63 percent of young Americans (under 30) said they would vote “definitely” in the general election – more than the 47 percent who said so in 2016. Among these young likely voters, Biden had a 60 to 27 percent lead.
- Traditional campaign field organizations – like knocking on doors to ask people for their vote – were cut down sharply in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, some are Democrats concerned that Biden’s campaign has so little on-site coverage. But a new one Morning Consult / Politico survey could confirm Biden’s approach: 63 percent of voters said they were concerned about opening the door to advertisers, while only 28 percent said they were okay with it.
- The race in California’s 53rd Congressional District doesn’t help determine who controls the US home. The campaign takes place between two Democrats, both of whom emerged from the all-party primary in March. However, there are still big differences between 31-year-old self-financier Sara Jacobs, a moderate person, and San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez, a progressive who would also be the first openly LGBTQ Latina in Congress. But a new one SurveyUSA survey By performing for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune, Jacobs is 38 to 24 percent ahead of the general election.
- Do you just want 2020 to be over? You are in good company. When YouGov Americans asked how 2020 had been for them, 21 percent said “bad” and another 21 percent said “terrible”. While 37 percent of Americans said 2020 was “okay”, only 12 percent said it was “good” and only 5 percent said it was “great”.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Approval Tracker, 42.9 percent of Americans are in favor of Trump’s work as president, while 53.2 percent are against (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). At this point last week, 43.3 percent agreed and 52.7 percent disagreed (a net approval rating of -9.5 points). A month ago, Trump had an approval rate of 41.6 percent and a rejection rate of 54.7 percent, which corresponds to a net approval rate of -13.0 points.
In our average of the polls for the general congressional vote, the Democrats currently lead with 6.4 percentage points (48.8 percent to 42.3 percent). A week ago, the Democrats led the Republicans with 6.4 points (48.6 percent to 42.2 percent). At that time last month, voters preferred the Democrats by 7.4 points (48.3 percent to 41.0 percent).
Derek Shan contributed to the research.
Look at all of them Survey We collected before the 2020 elections.