When Donald Trump took to the stage in 2015, some analysts assumed that his rhetoric against immigrants would be poison for Latino voters. But in 2016, Trump did it no worse than Mitt Romney with this group and possibly better (depending on what data you are looking at). And in 2020, Trump improved his lead over Latino voters by five percentage points in 2016. according to the exit surveys.
In 2020, President Biden Latinos won slightly overall: 65 to 32 percent. But as the people watching elections know, trends and margins matter, and Latino voters are not monoliths who all vote the same. In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks to the founders of the political research company Equis Research. Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Your most recent data-driven post mortem The 2020 Latino vote looks at which voters were most likely to favor Trump and hypothesizes why.
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