Neither the Times nor Siena published results during the day, but pollster and journalist Nate Cohn wrote On the Times website, these data provided “modest evidence of a shift in favor of … Biden in interviews on Friday,” including an ongoing Arizona poll that will be released later.
In Florida, Biden’s leadership is built on advantages over traditional Democratic constituencies, but the Democrat is also well represented among the groups that Republicans have traditionally won. Among voters under 30, Biden leads Trump with 62 to 25 percent. But he’s also neck and neck among retired seniors: 47 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump.
In 2016, in Florida, Hillary Clinton won voters under 30 with 18 points and Trump won seniors with 17 points.
Biden also has a solid lead among Latino voters, 58 to 34 percent. This despite concerted efforts by the Trump campaign to target Florida Latinos, especially voters of Cuban and South American descent. Clinton won Florida Latinos, 62 percent to 35 percent, according to the Exit poll.
And Biden is also shedding enough Republicans and Independents to build his leadership. He wins Democrats, 93 to 3 percent, but also has a 12 point lead over Independents and conquers 11 percent of Republicans.
The results were similar in Pennsylvania, where Biden was 13 points ahead of the Independents and won 11 percent of the Republican vote.
Thanks to his support among upscale white voters, Biden makes huge profit margins in the Pennsylvania suburbs as well. Graduated white voters support Biden by 60 to 31 percent, while unqualified whites vote Trump by 24 points (58 to 34 percent).
That gives Biden an almost 2-1 advantage in the traditionally competitive suburbs of Philadelphia, 60 to 32 percent. Clinton won the Philadelphia suburbs by 55 to 42 percent.
Biden has a marginal 48 to 40 percent lead on the battlefield in the northeastern part of the Commonwealth.
The polls suggest that Trump has done little in the debate to bolster his flagging candidacy. Trump broke the agreed rules and frequently interrupted Biden and also failed to condemn a far-right group.
Majorities in both states, 53 percent in Florida and 52 percent in Pennsylvania, strongly “disapprove” of the president’s conduct Tuesday night, and roughly 2 in 3 voters overall disapprove of his debate performance. In the meantime, slim majorities in both states approved of Biden’s debates.
The Florida poll polled 710 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Pennsylvania polled likely 706 voters and the results show a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.