In an attempt to contain the explosion of Democratic-minded color communities in the northern Atlanta suburbs, the GOP proposal turned the Bourdeaux area into something heavily democratic, while McBath’s seat became much more Republican-friendly. Your goal: take two swing seats in the democratic trend and create a red and a blue district instead.
The most likely outcome in Georgia after the next Election would be a win for Republicans, who currently control eight of the state’s 14 seats. But in the short term, it could make a primary next spring between two incumbents seeking prominence in a Democrat-leaning state.
“Members are pitted against each other – that is an unfortunate consequence of the redistribution,” said the Democratic MP. Hank Johnson, which represents a mostly black district southeast of Atlanta. “It could happen in Georgia.”
Your predicament is a classic math redistribution problem – two office holders, one seat – but it’s also a little more complicated. GOP Mapmakers placed the blue seat in Gwinnett County, a rapidly diversifying region that largely overlaps with Bourdeaux’s current district, giving it a clear geographic advantage, although the House of Congressmen is now narrowly assigned to another seat. But McBath, who is in her second term after Bourdeaux’s first term, has a bigger political profile in Washington, DC and in the Atlanta market, and she was a bigger fundraiser.
Bourdeaux made it clear in a statement on Wednesday that they are in the new 7.
“Last year it was an honor to represent Georgia’s 7th District in Washington,” she said. “The newly released congressional district map represents much of my current constituency. I look forward to being a voice for everyone in this new district as I continue to serve our community.”
The 7th district also contains a piece of McBath’s current seat – but not her home in eastern Cobb County. In a statement on Wednesday, their campaign criticized the “NRA and the Republican Party” for “making the elimination of Lucy McBath from Congress their top priority” in a “remarkably undemocratic process”.
McBath himself wrote in a tweet that the card “only strengthens my determination to stay in Congress,” but it did not specify which district it would run in.
And a collision threatens.
McBath’s borough has turned into a borough that former President Donald Trump would have carried in double digits in 2020, stretching into the deep red counties of Cherokee and Forsyth. If she wants to return to Congress in 2022, she will likely have to face Bourdeaux in the new 7th district.
“I can’t comment on what she’s going to do,” said Bee Nguyen, vice chairwoman of constituency groups for DeKalb County. “But what I’m saying is that she is a well-respected and popular congresswoman in Georgia. And when she won the 6th Congressional District, she made history and made a name for herself. So I see that she will continue to have a future in politics. It won’t be easy to get rid of. “
McBath’s house in Marietta is about an hour’s drive from the nearest border of the 7th. But as a Black woman with a compelling personal story, she would be well placed for the Democratic primary in a very diverse district like the new 7th.
McBath, a two-time breast cancer survivor, became a national leader in the gun control movement after her son Jordan was murdered in Florida in 2012 by a man who complained that her son was playing too loudly out of his car. The struggle for state gun control laws was a central tenet of their campaigns.
“It will be nine years since my son was murdered next week,” she wrote in a tweet. “Today the Republicans released another draft card to get me out of Congress. This only strengthens my determination to stay in Congress and fight for my son and those who were lost too early. “
Regardless of what McBath chooses, Bourdeaux is unlikely to escape a primary challenge from the left, in part because she spent her first year in office polishing her reputation as an outspoken centrist after hitting her GOP opponent had only beaten 3 percentage points last year.
Bourdeaux joined several other moderate Democrats who withheld support for the Democrats’ budget in August without voting on the infrastructure bill. The move drew the ire of a number of progressive organizations and immigrant rights groups who believed the Congresswoman was standing in the way of vital funds to prove a political point.
“From progressive organizations to local voters, I would say Democrats in Georgia are very disappointed with Carolyn Bourdeaux,” said Nabilah Islam, a Democratic strategist and former DNC fundraiser who came third in a 2020 primary against Bourdeaux occupied. She said earlier this week that she hasn’t ruled out a rematch in 2022.
The new map is hard to take for the Democrats as the boroughs McBath and Bourdeaux won were evidence of the changing suburban population that got them the house in 2018 and helped them keep it in 2020.
Ten years ago, Republicans cracked Democratic voters north of Atlanta between the 7th district of Bourdeaux and the 6th district of McBath, pairing them with other red districts. But some strategists worried they wouldn’t reliably remain Republicans for the entire decade – and in the end they were right.
Mitt Romney occupied both seats in 2012 with over 20 points. By 2020, current President Joe Biden won both, and the Democrats defeated the Republicans at the congressional level too. The reluctance of Republican cartographers to redistribute this – that they cede a seat to the Democrats instead of trying to eliminate more blue seats – is a sign of the power of black and Asian voters and the demographic fate of the state.
“2028 and 2030 were considered,” said Brian Robinson, a longtime GOP agent in Georgia. “You wanted to create one that would last.”
Cobb, Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett Counties are the most populous in the greater Atlanta area and were key to the success of the Democrats in 2020 Some on the left say the political power of key Democratic constituencies is being diluted.
Congress members do not have to live in the district they represent. McBath moved to Georgia in 1990 and has lived in Marietta, Cobb County since 2008. Bordeaux moved to their home in Gwinnett County in Suwanee ahead of their first run in 2017 against then GOP Representative Rob Woodall and secured a home in the district shortly before their candidacy.
Still, Bourdeaux, a politician who served as budget director for the Georgia state Senate, has now run twice in the district and won several highly competitive primary elections.
In 2018, she defeated Democrat David Kim twice in a primary election and a runoff for the nomination against Woodall. She lost the general election by less than 500 votes before reversing that fate instead of facing it again after Woodall stepped down. McBath easily defeated Handel again in a rematch in 2020.
“I wish you the best,” said Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) Earlier this week when he was after her. was asked Prospects for 2022. “They are good members.”