Republicans crash Florida early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead

President Donald Trump was one of the GOP voters who voted in the election. He kicked off the Florida statewide primary on Saturday by casting his vote in West Palm Beach and broadcasting an event live to urge supporters to show up and catch Democrats. Further south in Miami, former President Barack Obama held a rally for his former Vice President Joe Biden at Florida International University.

The split-screen schedule of the two presidents, each promoting Florida with different electoral coalitions, highlights the different strategies of the two campaigns in Trump’s must-win state, with the president trying to top the turnout of older and white voters and Obama to encourage young black and Latin American voices.

“One of the biggest flaws in 2016 was that Hillary Clinton was unable to put the Obama coalition together, especially among younger black voters and especially among younger black men. The Biden campaign clearly recognized that this was a challenge they must face this time, ”said Tom Bonier, CEO of the democratic data company TargetSmart.

“So Obama [going] There’s probably one point on the checklist and why Obama’s visit makes sense. “

According to TargetSmart’s analysis, black voters ages 18-29 cast 15.8 percent of all Florida ballots. That is half a percentage point less than the same period in 2016. Bonier noted that the overall vote of this group, along with almost every other population group in the state, has risen in crude votes and that “it’s not like the Numbers would be bad. There is opportunity. “

Bonier pointed out that white non-college voters, Trump’s most loyal supporters, have had a lower share of the vote than they did 10 days before the 2016 election.

But Republicans expect these white voters to show now that early personal voting has begun in every county. As for the turnout of young black voters, Biden’s problem is that he doesn’t even hit Clinton’s 2016 totals, which was still insufficient for her, said Ryan Tyson, Florida’s top Republican data analyst.

“If you’re excited to get the Clinton turnout, I’ll say ‘please,'” Tyson said. “The only turnout that Trump can reasonably beat is an Obama coalition turnout, a turnout from the rising electorate of young voters, especially African Americans and Latinos. Biden doesn’t understand. That’s why they’re bringing Obama to Miami. It is appropriate to call it an Obama rescue mission. “

Overall, black and Hispanic voter turnout as a share of early and absent voting is higher than it was at this point in 2016. However, this is mainly due to voting by high-propensity older voters who were expected to be in turn out any way, Tyson said. Democrats have led the way in producing far more of these dependable voters than Republicans, who have 401,000 higher propensity voters who yearn to vote in person.

The Republican advantage among high-propensity voters in 2016 helped Trump overcome a deficit of nearly 247,000 votes on election day morning and beat Hillary Clinton by less than 113,000 votes.

Democrats are more low-inclination and newly registered voters than Republicans. According to an analysis by Tyson, whose latest 1,000-sample Florida poll includes Trump, the shares roughly match their party’s votes with a lead of 2 points, which is well within the survey’s error rate of 3.1 points. In many recent public polls, Biden is only a marginal leader.

“All the signs point to another 1 to 2 percent election in Florida,” Tyson said, noting that more younger voters are emerging but older voters are still casting more ballots.

Steve Shell, a top advisor on Obama’s 2008 and 2012 Florida races and now leads the super PAC for Biden Unite the Country, agreed that the elections are likely to be tight, but denied the idea that Obama was on a ” Rescue Mission “found. And he noted that Trump was blunt in the GOP-heavy Pensacola and The Villages retirement community on Friday, while Vice President Mike Pence came to Tallahassee on Saturday.

As his opponents defended their must-win state, Shell pointed out that Biden was fighting in Pennsylvania on Saturday and his runner-up Kamala Harris was in Ohio, both battlefields Trump won.

“Of course I want to win Florida. But you can see where I spent my money, ”said Shell via text message, referring to the PAC’s spending in the upper Midwest. “I want Joe Biden to be president. If they are forced to do anything here, we will lose FL and win the White House. Do you know how much this will bother me? “

He answered his own question with a GIF from Trump’s former attorney and said, “The answer is ‘zero’.”

In his speech in North Miami, a predominantly black city, on Saturday, Obama mocked Trump’s erratic behavior and said, “Florida You wouldn’t even do this stuff!”

Trump card replied with a tweetBetween the election freezes in North Carolina and Ohio, it was said: “Nobody shows up to Obama’s hateful speeches.” The day before at The Villages, Trump made fun of Obama’s middle name “Hussein”.

When Trump voted early on Saturday, he wavered: “I voted for a man named Trump.”

The Trump campaign assumes that Florida Democrats will continue to suffer from the margin. State presidential campaign manager Susie Wiles said “I’d rather be in our position than hers” because Florida Republicans have won from behind on Election Day while the Democrats have blown up in the past .

“We believe in our plan because it worked in 2016 and 2018 and in previous election cycles,” added Wiles.

In recent years, Democrats have cast fewer postal ballots than Republicans, but outperformed the GOP by voting in person early. Now the roles have reversed. Trump demonized postal voting, which prevented many of his constituents from casting postal votes, while more Democrats promised to vote by postal vote because of the coronavirus pandemic.

After Democrats got a big head start on mail-in votes, Republicans began to fill the gap as soon as personal primaries began in select counties on Monday. Florida law requires all counties to offer in-person early voting starting Saturday. Many of these counties are small but have a significant majority of Republicans.

Both parties monitor the ballot papers before election day as a sign of the intensity of the base voters. Although the ballot papers are counted by party, the votes contained therein are only listed in a table on election day.

By Saturday morning, the Democrats had cast a total of 2.3 million ballots before election day, 43 percent of the 4.8 million so far. The Republicans had cast about 1.9 million votes, or 36 percent. The remainder were filled by non-party voters.

Up to 75 percent of the vote could be cast before election day in Florida, which could mean the country’s largest battlefield state could report on the night’s key results early on.

Obama referred to this fact when addressing campaign organizers and members of the United Teachers of Dade union on Saturday, begging voters in Florida to make it an early night.

“When you bring Florida home, this thing will be over,” said Obama. “I don’t have to wait for the results. I want to go to sleep and know that we will have a president who will fight for us.”

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