Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly poll summary.
Poll (s) of the week
Last weekend, President Biden attended the annual meeting of the Group of 7 Who discussed different ways to address pressing economic and security problems. And although the assembled heads of state and government did not necessarily agree on every subject, a Pew Research Center survey found before the G7 meeting that respondents in the six other member countries – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK – had far more confidence in Biden than former President Trump and had a much more positive opinion of the US after Biden is in office.
Still, polls in at least three of these countries will make important decisions about their own political leadership over the next year, so it’s possible that Biden will see some different faces at the next G7 meeting in 2022. Germany and Japan will hold parliamentary elections later this year, while France’s next presidential election will take place in April 2022. Additionally, Canada could also hold its general election pretty soon. Going international today, FiveThirtyEight takes a look at the electoral landscape in these four countries and what that could mean for US allies in the future.
First and foremost, Germany, as its election ensures that there will be at least one new G7 leader at the next meeting. Long-time Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to resign the vote of September 26th for the lower house of the German Bundestag. The Germans cast two votes in this election, one directly for a candidate and one for a party, since half of the seats are elected on the basis of candidate preference in the single-person districts, while the other seats are allocated proportionally on the basis of a party preference election. And the leader of the party that wins the most seats often heads the next government, even though that is not always the case.
For now, Surveys suggest that the center-right alliance of Merkel’s Christian-Democratic Union and the Christian-Social Union is preferred to remain the largest faction in parliament. Politicoiti survey average puts the CDU / CSU alliance at 27 percent, and with it Armin Laschet, Merkel’s successor as CDU leader, seems to be the most likely next Chancellor. However, this cannot be taken for granted because there is uncertainty about the next German government coalition. Five parties have between 10 and 30 percent of the polls, so it is very unlikely that one party will win an absolute majority. But if the CDU / CSU should get the most seats in the end, then could find a new government partner. The left-wing Greens are in second place with around 20 percent and could displace the more employee-oriented Social Democrats with around 15 percent as the largest party on the left German political spectrum.
However, it is still early and the CDU / CSU could work again with the Social Democrats with whom they worked Partner for a large part of Merkel’s time as chancellor. There is also the possibility of the classically liberal Free Democrats who now have more than 10 percent on average from Politico and are Laschets preferred coalition partnerto get enough seats to work with the CDU / CSU alone. The biggest wildcard is like that right-wing extremist and xenophobic Alternative for Germany with a survey of around 10 percent, tariffs come in September, as it is unlikely that either of these parties would form a government coalition in order to.
In the meantime, Japan must hold an election for its House of Representatives until the end of October. Like Germany, the country uses a mixed electoral system, with about 60 percent of the members elected from individual districts and the remainder are proportionally elected by a party preferential election. The biggest question is whether Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga can keep the conservative Liberal Democratic Party in power. (This has been Suga’s number one choice since he became prime minister last September.) The LDP ruled Japan for most of the past 65 years, and polls suggest that winning the most seats again later this year is preferred. Suga’s government was criticized for dealing with COVID-19, and the LDP lost a handful of special elections In April. The largest opposition party, the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, hopes for ground and even seeks to work with the Japanese Communist Party to improve the chances of an anti-LDP coalition. But Suga’s saving grace could be in it political opposition is weak and split into a number of parties, making it difficult to overthrow the LDP.
In contrast to Germany and Japan, France has a presidential system – albeit not all like the USA – but President Emmanuel Macron and his centrist party Republic on the Move will face an exam April next year Macron seeks to be re-elected. To win, a candidate must win a majority of the votes, and if neither candidate does, there will be a runoff two weeks later. But Politicoiti survey average currently does not show a candidate who comes even close to a majority. Macron averages 26 percent and is neck and neck with right-wing nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen of the National Rally Party, who is 27 percent. The closest competitor is in the low double digits, so a runoff between Macron and Le Pen seems the most likely scenario.
If this match sounds familiar, it’s because Macron beat Le Pen in 2017 about two to one margin at an outlet. But polls testing a possible rematch between Macron and Le Pen suggest it could get a lot tighter this time around – the most recent runoff elections only revealed Macron at 6 . ahead to 8 percentage points. The fact that the race is so close probably reflects how much Macron is struggling with handling the coronavirus pandemic and Workers unrest during his tenure. His approval rating is only south of 40 percent, according to Politico. Meanwhile, Le Pen has been working on it expand their attraction by withdrawing from their earlier views that France Stop using the euro as his currency and it should be leave the European Union a total of. It’s early days but the expected runoff between Macron and Le Pen could be huge consequences for France’s domestic and international politics, given the daylight between the two.
After all, there are no official elections on the program in Canada yet, but a choice could happen in the near future because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leads the ruling Liberal Party Minority government – that is, it has the most seats in the Canadian House of Commons, but no actual majority, which makes it difficult to govern. While the Liberals top most polls and likely to win the most seats, they are not guaranteed a majority. Trudeaus Approval rating sits in the mid-1940s due to mixed reviews about his handling of COVID-19 and a number of Scandals in his government. Indeed, if there is a vote soon, the Liberals could find each other in the same position as after the 2019 electionwhen they won the most seats but lost an absolute majority You won in 2015 at Trudeau’s first choice as party chairman. Forecasters at 338 Canada currently forecast that the number of Liberal seats is likely to be just under a majority, while the Poll tracker from CBC The forecast is just under the majority mark of 170 seats. A Election would be triggered if Trudeau calls on Canada’s Governor General to dissolve Parliament, what could happen if Trudeau’s government loses a Vote of no confidence or when Trudeau tells the governor-general that an election is necessary because the opposition has made it impossible to govern.
While there won’t be many major state and federal elections taking place in the US in 2021 and early 2022, overseas you should watch out for our country’s key international partners as there may be some big changes in the next year.
Other polling bites
- As the COVID-19 threat subsides somewhat with vaccination, many Americans who were able to work remotely during the pandemic are returning to personal work. But a new one CBS News / YouGov poll found that a majority of Americans don’t necessarily want to return to the office full-time: 31 percent of working Americans would prefer to work from home in the future, and another 26 percent would prefer a mix of remote and on-site work . But 43 percent said they still prefer to work at their workplace.
- The Tokyo Summer Olympics begin on July 23 and Morning counseling found that American sports fans are just as interested in women’s sports as they are in men’s sports at the games. Overall, 67 percent of sports fans said they were interested in Olympic women’s sports, while 69 percent were interested in Olympic men’s sports. This is a far more even engagement in men’s and women’s sports than in professional and university sports in the United States. This may be related to the high profile of the female Olympians. According to a previous Morning Consult poll, the Olympic athletes best known among the respondents were all women: Serena Williams, Simone Biles, Megan Rapinoe and Katie Ledecky.
- A YouGov survey asked Americans what age they expected to have saved enough money to retire comfortably, and the results found three main groups: those who thought they would be 65 (13 percent) before 60 and those who thought , they would either be over 70 or would never be able to retire (23 percent). Younger respondents were more optimistic about retiring early, as 19 percent of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 25 percent of 25 to 34 year olds said they would retire before they reached the age of 60, for about 15 percent of those over 35 said the same thing. Conversely, older respondents were more pessimistic, as 27 percent of 35 to 44 year olds and 33 percent of 45 to 54 year olds thought they would only retire at 70 or not at all, compared with less than 20 percent of those under 35 -Year-olds.
- Next Tuesday is the first day of the New York City Mayor’s Race, and the latest polls show that Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is leading the city’s new ranked electoral system in the first elections. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about how the RCV process will play out in a rather volatile race. For example, the last two full RCV unrelated polls showed a very close race between Adams and former New York Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia after all the ranking votes were taken. First: Public Opinion Research Strategies of the GOP Survey queried in the name from the Manhattan Institute, noting that Garcia ousted Adams by 52 to 48 percent after the vote was redistributed. But PIX11 / NewsNation / Emerson College founded the reverse result after the redistribution, with Adams gaining about 52 percent versus Garcia’s 48 percent. We’ll have to wait and see how the area code turns out, but be prepared to wait a while as the city sees it does not expect to tabulate the ranking votes until July 12th.
- Pew found recently that non-religious Americans were more likely to oppose the death penalty for those convicted of murder than those of any Christian denomination, although there were significant differences within different groups. Majorities of atheists and agnostics opposed the death penalty, while 37 percent of those who otherwise did not identify with a religious group were also against it. Meanwhile, only 23 percent of white evangelical Protestants and 27 percent of non-evangelical white Protestants opposed the death penalty, and more than 70 percent of each group supported it. But black Protestants were more evenly informed about the death penalty, with 47 percent opposed and 50 percent approved.
- USA Today and Suffolk University are working together to survey residents in cities across the country to assess their attitudes towards law enforcement after a year of serious incidents of police violence across the country, notably the murder of George Floyd. The first survey the residents of Milwaukee and found that 61 percent of the city’s police force did only a fair or bad job, compared to 35 percent who said they did an excellent job or a good job. However, there were racial divisions on this question: 81 percent of black respondents said the police were doing a fair or bad job, while white Milwaukeeans were more evenly divided, with 46 percent saying the police were doing an excellent or a good job and 49 percent saying that they are doing a fair job or a bad job.
According to FiveThirtyEights Presidential Approval Tracker, 51.9 percent of Americans are in favor of Biden’s job as president, while 42.0 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of +9.9 percentage points). At this point last week, 53.0 percent had been approved and 40.6 percent rejected (a net approval rate of +12.4 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 52.7 percent and a disapproval rate of 40.7 percent (a net approval rating of 12.0 points).