Washington State was the one initial epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States. And New York is the most affected part of the country so far. The number of hospital stays is increasing rapidly – more than 37,000 people were diagnosed with the corona virus in New York from late Thursday afternoon.
Because COVID-19 hit blue first, the coastal states, and because politics is politics, the response to the pandemic wasn’t exactly apolitical.
But blue states are hardly alone in What will be a nationwide epidemic. Jefferson Parish, Louisiana – which went by 15 percentage points for Trump in 2016 – has one Mortality rate roughly equal to that of Manhattan. And how terrifying as the hospital situation in New York City isEven in states like Michigan and Georgia.
Overall, although the number of recognized Cases are higher in blue countries, the number increases faster in red countries. In addition, blue states performed more tests per capita than red states. Given that the vast majority of coronavirus cases go undetected, the lower rate of cases in red states can sometimes be an artifact of fewer tests.
Here are the dates from late Thursday afternoon, with states sorted between Monday (March 23) and Thursday (March 26) by the increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases. All data comes from the inestimable value COVID tracking project.
Detected COVID-19 cases increase in red states
Known COVID-19 cases from March 23-26, according to The COVID Tracking Project
| March 23 | 26th of March | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status | Detected cases | Per 10k pop. | Detected cases | Per 10k pop. | change | 2016 winner |
| Texas | 352 | 0.12 | 1396 | 0.48 | 297% | Trump card |
| West Virginia | 16 | 0.09 | 51 | 0.28 | 219 | Trump card |
| Massachusetts | 777 | 1.12 | 2417 | 3.48 | 211 | Clinton |
| Oklahoma | 81 | 0.2 | 248 | 0.63 | 206 | Trump card |
| Alabama | 167 | 0.34 | 506 | 1.03 | 203 | Trump card |
| Missouri | 183 | 0.3 | 502 | 0.82 | 174 | Trump card |
| Alaska | 22 | 0.3 | 59 | 0.81 | 168 | Trump card |
| Pennsylvania | 644 | 0.5 | 1687 | 1.32 | 162 | Trump card |
| Idaho | 47 | 0.26 | 123 | 0.69 | 162 | Trump card |
| Indiana | 259 | 0.38 | 645 | 0.96 | 149 | Trump card |
| Connecticut | 415 | 1.16 | 1012 | 2.84 | 144 | Clinton |
| New Jersey | 2844 | 3.2 | 6876 | 7.74 | 142 | Clinton |
| Arizona | 265 | 0.36 | 577 | 0.79 | 118 | Trump card |
| Michigan | 1328 | 1.33 | 2856 | 2.86 | 115 | Trump card |
| North Carolina | 297 | 0.28 | 636 | 0.61 | 114 | Trump card |
| Vermont | 75 | 1.2 | 158 | 2.53 | 111 | Clinton |
| Montana | 34 | 0.32 | 71 | 0.66 | 109 | Trump card |
| Kansas | 82 | 0.28 | 168 | 0.58 | 105 | Trump card |
| Wyoming | 26 | 0.45 | 53 | 0.92 | 104 | Trump card |
| Maryland | 288 | 0.48 | 580 | 0.96 | 101 | Clinton |
| Florida | 1171 | 0.55 | 2355 | 1.1 | 101 | Trump card |
| District of Columbia | 116 | 1.64 | 231 | 3.27 | 99 | Clinton |
| Georgia | 772 | 0.73 | 1525 | 1.44 | 98 | Trump card |
| Illinois | 1285 | 1.01 | 2538 | 2nd | 98 | Clinton |
| Louisiana | 1172 | 2.52 | 2305 | 4.96 | 97 | Trump card |
| Ohio | 442 | 0.38 | 867 | 0.74 | 96 | Trump card |
| Mississippi | 249 | 0.84 | 485 | 1.63 | 95 | Trump card |
| Arkansas | 174 | 0.58 | 335 | 1.11 | 93 | Trump card |
| Delaware | 68 | 0.7 | 130 | 1.34 | 91 | Clinton |
| Kentucky | 104 | 0.23 | 198 | 0.44 | 90 | Trump card |
| Colorado | 591 | 1.03 | 1086 | 1.89 | 84 | Clinton |
| Virginia | 254 | 0.3 | 460 | 0.54 | 81 | Clinton |
| new York | 20875 | 10.73 | 37258 | 19.15 | 78 | Clinton |
| New Hampshire | 78 | 0.57 | 137 | 1.01 | 76 | Clinton |
| California | 1733 | 0.44 | 3006 | 0.76 | 73 | Clinton |
| North Dakota | 30th | 0.39 | 52 | 0.68 | 73 | Trump card |
| New Mexico | 65 | 0.31 | 112 | 0.53 | 72 | Clinton |
| Nevada | 245 | 0.8 | 420 | 1.36 | 71 | Clinton |
| Oregon | 191 | 0.45 | 327 | 0.78 | 71 | Clinton |
| Iowa | 105 | 0.33 | 179 | 0.57 | 70 | Trump card |
| Wisconsin | 416 | 0.71 | 707 | 1.21 | 70 | Trump card |
| Hawaii | 56 | 0.4 | 95 | 0.67 | 70 | Clinton |
| South Dakota | 28 | 0.32 | 46 | 0.52 | 64 | Trump card |
| Utah | 257 | 0.8 | 402 | 1.25 | 56 | Trump card |
| Rhode Island | 106 | 1 | 165 | 1.56 | 56 | Clinton |
| Tennessee | 615 | 0.9 | 957 | 1.4 | 56 | Trump card |
| South Carolina | 299 | 0.58 | 456 | 0.89 | 53 | Trump card |
| Minnesota | 235 | 0.42 | 346 | 0.61 | 47 | Clinton |
| Nebraska | 50 | 0.26 | 73 | 0.38 | 46 | Trump card |
| Maine | 107 | 0.8 | 155 | 1.15 | 45 | Clinton |
| Washington | 1996 | 2.62 | 2580 | 3.39 | 29 | Clinton |
Nine of the ten states in which the corona virus grew fastest Monday through Thursday voted for Trump in 2016, led by Texas, where the number of reported cases has increased by 297 percent.
On average, states that voted for Trump saw a 119 percent increase in cases over this three-day period, compared to an 88 percent increase in states that voted for Hillary Clinton (plus the District of Columbia). Weighted by state population, the difference is slightly larger: 141 percent in the states that Trump won and 88 percent in the states where Clinton won.
Currently, states that Clinton won have reported significantly more cases. As of Thursday, Clinton states had 4.29 positive tests per 10,000 people, compared to 1.13 per 10,000 people in Trump states. Much of this difference is due to New York. Without New York, Clinton states have 1.89 cases per 10,000 people.
However, the exponential growth is such that these differences can quickly disappear. If the reported cases in Trump states increased by 119 percent every three days (about 30 percent per day), while the reported cases in Clinton states increased by 88 percent every three days (about 23 percent per day), then the pro counts Head case in Trump states would surpass that in Clinton states within 30 days or by the end of April.
Hopefully the rate of increase will slow down in both types of states as we see further effects of social distancing measures in the data. However, these measures were generally issued earlier and stronger in blue countries. This means that the rate at which new cases are diagnosed could slow down faster in blue states than in red states, which means that red states would catch up earlier.
Blue states also performed more tests than red states. In states with reliable estimates of the number of positive and negative tests on Thursday evening, the Clinton States had performed 21.8 tests per 10,000 people, compared to 12.5 tests per 10,000 people in Trump states.
Blue states have performed more COVID-19 tests
Completed tests on March 26 in states with reliable reporting on the number of negative tests
| Status | Tests completed per 10,000 people * | 2016 winner |
|---|---|---|
| new York | 62.8 | Clinton |
| Louisiana | 38.8 | Trump card |
| New Mexico | 37.2 | Clinton |
| Massachusetts | 34.0 | Clinton |
| Vermont | 32.2 | Clinton |
| Maine | April 26 | Clinton |
| District of Columbia | 26.3 | Clinton |
| Alaska | 25.4 | Trump card |
| Utah | 24.0 | Trump card |
| New Jersey | 23.1 | Clinton |
| New Hampshire | 23.1 | Clinton |
| Minnesota | 23.0 | Clinton |
| South Dakota | 22.8 | Trump card |
| Tennessee | 21.8 | Trump card |
| Wisconsin | 21.1 | Trump card |
| Montana | 20.6 | Trump card |
| Connecticut | 18.6 | Clinton |
| Oregon | 17.3 | Clinton |
| Nevada | 16.6 | Clinton |
| Ohio | 14.8 | Trump card |
| Rhode Island | 14.2 | Clinton |
| Pennsylvania | 14.2 | Trump card |
| Illinois | 13.1 | Clinton |
| Idaho | 12.2 | Trump card |
| Florida | 12.2 | Trump card |
| Kansas | 10.4 | Trump card |
| Michigan | 9.4 | Trump card |
| Nebraska | 8.6 | Trump card |
| Georgia | 8.4 | Trump card |
| Alabama | 8.4 | Trump card |
| Texas | 7.4 | Trump card |
| Kentucky | 7.4 | Trump card |
| Virginia | 7.3 | Clinton |
| Arkansas | 6.1 | Trump card |
| West Virginia | 6.0 | Trump card |
| California | 5.2 | Clinton |
| Oklahoma | 3.0 | Trump card |
This means that the actual gap in the number of cases may not be as large as the approximately four-fold difference in reported cases between blue and red states. States like Louisiana have discovered that they have far more cases than they originally realized As they intensified their tests in the past week, further red (and blue) conditions could follow.
COVID-19 has also led to a slightly higher one Death rate (the number of deaths as a proportion of the number of known cases) in red states so far. As of Thursday evening, the mortality rate per case in Trump states was 1.7 percent, compared to 1.3 percent in Clinton states. This could reflect a variety of factors, including possible underreporting of cases in Trump countries, age and population health in individual states, or the effectiveness of responses from local health systems.
However, the higher death rate is a somewhat worrying sign of red states, as many of them are generally in their state earlier epidemic curvesThis means that many people who have acquired COVID-19 in these states have done so recently and have not yet developed the most serious symptoms that could lead to long-term hospitalization or death.
