The Coronavirus Isn’t Just A Blue State Problem

Washington State was the one initial epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States. And New York is the most affected part of the country so far. The number of hospital stays is increasing rapidly – more than 37,000 people were diagnosed with the corona virus in New York from late Thursday afternoon.

Because COVID-19 hit blue first, the coastal states, and because politics is politics, the response to the pandemic wasn’t exactly apolitical.

But blue states are hardly alone in What will be a nationwide epidemic. Jefferson Parish, Louisiana – which went by 15 percentage points for Trump in 2016 – has one Mortality rate roughly equal to that of Manhattan. And how terrifying as the hospital situation in New York City isEven in states like Michigan and Georgia.

Overall, although the number of recognized Cases are higher in blue countries, the number increases faster in red countries. In addition, blue states performed more tests per capita than red states. Given that the vast majority of coronavirus cases go undetected, the lower rate of cases in red states can sometimes be an artifact of fewer tests.

Here are the dates from late Thursday afternoon, with states sorted between Monday (March 23) and Thursday (March 26) by the increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases. All data comes from the inestimable value COVID tracking project.

Detected COVID-19 cases increase in red states

Known COVID-19 cases from March 23-26, according to The COVID Tracking Project

March 23 26th of March
Status Detected cases Per 10k pop. Detected cases Per 10k pop. change 2016 winner
Texas 352 0.12 1396 0.48 297% Trump card
West Virginia 16 0.09 51 0.28 219 Trump card
Massachusetts 777 1.12 2417 3.48 211 Clinton
Oklahoma 81 0.2 248 0.63 206 Trump card
Alabama 167 0.34 506 1.03 203 Trump card
Missouri 183 0.3 502 0.82 174 Trump card
Alaska 22 0.3 59 0.81 168 Trump card
Pennsylvania 644 0.5 1687 1.32 162 Trump card
Idaho 47 0.26 123 0.69 162 Trump card
Indiana 259 0.38 645 0.96 149 Trump card
Connecticut 415 1.16 1012 2.84 144 Clinton
New Jersey 2844 3.2 6876 7.74 142 Clinton
Arizona 265 0.36 577 0.79 118 Trump card
Michigan 1328 1.33 2856 2.86 115 Trump card
North Carolina 297 0.28 636 0.61 114 Trump card
Vermont 75 1.2 158 2.53 111 Clinton
Montana 34 0.32 71 0.66 109 Trump card
Kansas 82 0.28 168 0.58 105 Trump card
Wyoming 26 0.45 53 0.92 104 Trump card
Maryland 288 0.48 580 0.96 101 Clinton
Florida 1171 0.55 2355 1.1 101 Trump card
District of Columbia 116 1.64 231 3.27 99 Clinton
Georgia 772 0.73 1525 1.44 98 Trump card
Illinois 1285 1.01 2538 2nd 98 Clinton
Louisiana 1172 2.52 2305 4.96 97 Trump card
Ohio 442 0.38 867 0.74 96 Trump card
Mississippi 249 0.84 485 1.63 95 Trump card
Arkansas 174 0.58 335 1.11 93 Trump card
Delaware 68 0.7 130 1.34 91 Clinton
Kentucky 104 0.23 198 0.44 90 Trump card
Colorado 591 1.03 1086 1.89 84 Clinton
Virginia 254 0.3 460 0.54 81 Clinton
new York 20875 10.73 37258 19.15 78 Clinton
New Hampshire 78 0.57 137 1.01 76 Clinton
California 1733 0.44 3006 0.76 73 Clinton
North Dakota 30th 0.39 52 0.68 73 Trump card
New Mexico 65 0.31 112 0.53 72 Clinton
Nevada 245 0.8 420 1.36 71 Clinton
Oregon 191 0.45 327 0.78 71 Clinton
Iowa 105 0.33 179 0.57 70 Trump card
Wisconsin 416 0.71 707 1.21 70 Trump card
Hawaii 56 0.4 95 0.67 70 Clinton
South Dakota 28 0.32 46 0.52 64 Trump card
Utah 257 0.8 402 1.25 56 Trump card
Rhode Island 106 1 165 1.56 56 Clinton
Tennessee 615 0.9 957 1.4 56 Trump card
South Carolina 299 0.58 456 0.89 53 Trump card
Minnesota 235 0.42 346 0.61 47 Clinton
Nebraska 50 0.26 73 0.38 46 Trump card
Maine 107 0.8 155 1.15 45 Clinton
Washington 1996 2.62 2580 3.39 29 Clinton

Sources: The COVID Tracking Project, US Census

Nine of the ten states in which the corona virus grew fastest Monday through Thursday voted for Trump in 2016, led by Texas, where the number of reported cases has increased by 297 percent.

On average, states that voted for Trump saw a 119 percent increase in cases over this three-day period, compared to an 88 percent increase in states that voted for Hillary Clinton (plus the District of Columbia). Weighted by state population, the difference is slightly larger: 141 percent in the states that Trump won and 88 percent in the states where Clinton won.

Currently, states that Clinton won have reported significantly more cases. As of Thursday, Clinton states had 4.29 positive tests per 10,000 people, compared to 1.13 per 10,000 people in Trump states. Much of this difference is due to New York. Without New York, Clinton states have 1.89 cases per 10,000 people.

However, the exponential growth is such that these differences can quickly disappear. If the reported cases in Trump states increased by 119 percent every three days (about 30 percent per day), while the reported cases in Clinton states increased by 88 percent every three days (about 23 percent per day), then the pro counts Head case in Trump states would surpass that in Clinton states within 30 days or by the end of April.

Hopefully the rate of increase will slow down in both types of states as we see further effects of social distancing measures in the data. However, these measures were generally issued earlier and stronger in blue countries. This means that the rate at which new cases are diagnosed could slow down faster in blue states than in red states, which means that red states would catch up earlier.

Blue states also performed more tests than red states. In states with reliable estimates of the number of positive and negative tests on Thursday evening, the Clinton States had performed 21.8 tests per 10,000 people, compared to 12.5 tests per 10,000 people in Trump states.

Blue states have performed more COVID-19 tests

Completed tests on March 26 in states with reliable reporting on the number of negative tests

Status Tests completed per 10,000 people * 2016 winner
new York 62.8 Clinton
Louisiana 38.8 Trump card
New Mexico 37.2 Clinton
Massachusetts 34.0 Clinton
Vermont 32.2 Clinton
Maine April 26 Clinton
District of Columbia 26.3 Clinton
Alaska 25.4 Trump card
Utah 24.0 Trump card
New Jersey 23.1 Clinton
New Hampshire 23.1 Clinton
Minnesota 23.0 Clinton
South Dakota 22.8 Trump card
Tennessee 21.8 Trump card
Wisconsin 21.1 Trump card
Montana 20.6 Trump card
Connecticut 18.6 Clinton
Oregon 17.3 Clinton
Nevada 16.6 Clinton
Ohio 14.8 Trump card
Rhode Island 14.2 Clinton
Pennsylvania 14.2 Trump card
Illinois 13.1 Clinton
Idaho 12.2 Trump card
Florida 12.2 Trump card
Kansas 10.4 Trump card
Michigan 9.4 Trump card
Nebraska 8.6 Trump card
Georgia 8.4 Trump card
Alabama 8.4 Trump card
Texas 7.4 Trump card
Kentucky 7.4 Trump card
Virginia 7.3 Clinton
Arkansas 6.1 Trump card
West Virginia 6.0 Trump card
California 5.2 Clinton
Oklahoma 3.0 Trump card

* Except tests that are listed as pending.

Sources: The COVID Tracking Project, US Census

This means that the actual gap in the number of cases may not be as large as the approximately four-fold difference in reported cases between blue and red states. States like Louisiana have discovered that they have far more cases than they originally realized As they intensified their tests in the past week, further red (and blue) conditions could follow.

COVID-19 has also led to a slightly higher one Death rate (the number of deaths as a proportion of the number of known cases) in red states so far. As of Thursday evening, the mortality rate per case in Trump states was 1.7 percent, compared to 1.3 percent in Clinton states. This could reflect a variety of factors, including possible underreporting of cases in Trump countries, age and population health in individual states, or the effectiveness of responses from local health systems.

However, the higher death rate is a somewhat worrying sign of red states, as many of them are generally in their state earlier epidemic curvesThis means that many people who have acquired COVID-19 in these states have done so recently and have not yet developed the most serious symptoms that could lead to long-term hospitalization or death.

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