The key counties that could tell us who has won the presidency

The key counties that could tell us who has won the presidency

Observers will be closely monitoring the results at the state level tonight – but the really enthusiastic supporters are looking at the counties.

That’s because there are some key circles whose outcome could indicate who is likely to win.


On the one hand there is demography – because the composition of certain population groups could lead to results that show how the entire state voted.

Population size is also critical – as some counties are so large that a win can effectively win the state over.

Business Insider says most swing states have a county or two that serve as bellwether for the rest of the state.

So here are the counties that election observers pay the most attention to.

Macomb County, Michigan

Trump only won Michigan 0.2 percent in 2016 – and places like Macomb are key.

The county is home to the Reagan Democrats – the people Ronald Reagan drew to his side in his hugely successful election victories in 1980 and 1984.

Obama won Macomb in 2008 and 2012, but Trump took over the county in 2016.

He won the state by just over 10,000 votes – but Macomb gave him a majority of more than 48,000.

Erie County, Pennsylvania

This was one of 206 counties across the country that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 after supporting Obama in each of his elections.

The former democratic stronghold has large numbers of white working class voters – who were crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016.

Cuyahoga County, Ohio says Ohio is a “litter”. It was about Trump in 2016, Obama in the two elections before, Bush in the two before – and Clinton in the two before.

So it could go either way – and the view is that Cuyahoga County matters.

If the Democrats get more minority votes this time around, they could do it. And even if they don’t, an improvement in the numbers here could bode well for other parts of the country.

Maricopa County, Arizona

That’s 61 percent of the Arizona population that is desperate to claim either side. Business Insider says it is one of the fastest growing countries in America.

The Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema, elected in 2018, won Maricopa with 60,000 votes.

Whoever wins Maricopa County will likely win the state.

Seminole County, Florida

Trump only won one percent here in 2016. However, the county has elected Republicans in every election since 1952.

News 6’s Jim Cark said Seminole County went Democratic in the 2018 congressional election.

“If you take Seminole and St. Petersburg, you take I-4 corridor, and that’s enough to balance Trump’s support in North Florida and South Florida and carry the state.” reported it as a saying.

Wake County, North Carolina

North Carolina county with the largest population. Obama won it in 2008 and lost it in 2012.

Abc11 reports that campaigns in the county were intense.

Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

There was a roughly 20 percent drop in black votes in 2016, which was another factor in Clinton’s defeat.

Democrats want to increase voter turnout this time around to reverse this trend.

Voters stood in line this morning to have their say. WTMJ-TV reported.

Gwinnett County, Georgia

It backed Clinton in 2016 and is the second largest county in Georgia. However, it was traditionally a republican stronghold.

Vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris visited this week to demonstrate how important the Democrats are to the competition.



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