The New York Mayoral Election Is No Longer Andrew Yang’s To Lose

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly survey.

The race for the mayor of New York City is getting closer

Let me bring you back to 2013. Everyone had “to be luckyTikToks vines were on their minds, and former MP Anthony Weiner and then City Council spokeswoman Christine Quinn introduced early polls the Democratic primary for New York’s open mayor’s office. But about a month before the primary, then public lawyer, Bill de Blasio rose into the lead and eventually became Gotham’s 109th mayor.

Could something similar happen in 2021? As my colleague Alex Samuels wrote in March, 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang started this year’s campaign as the clear front runner. A pretty representative April poll by Ipsos / Spectrum News NY1 found that Yang was the first choice of 22 percent of the likely voters, Brooklyn City President Eric Adams, 13 percent, and City Comptroller Scott Stringer 11 percent. The former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia was after four other candidates in the single-digit range with 4 percent at the top.

But three polls of the race published last week paint another picture of the race:

Polls show a traffic jam in New York City

Leaders in recent polls asking respondents to vote their first choice candidate in the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor

Events Pollsters sample Adams Yang Garcia Stringer
May 23rd to 24th Emerson College 570 LV 20% 16% 21% 10%
17.-20. May Spin strategies * 749 LV 16 19th 10 13th
15.-19. May Core decision analysis 800 LV 18th 13th 11 7th
Average 18th 16 14th 10

* Survey sponsored by Andrew Yang’s campaign.

Source: surveys

After spending much of the race as the first choice of at least 20 percent – sometimes even 30 percent – Of the voters, Yang has fallen back into the teenage years and is somewhat connected with Adams … and with Garcia, who is now even voting in double digits after a Yang internal survey. (In fact, the latest poll from Emerson College / PIX11 Newsshowed that Garcia received 21 percent of the first choice vote and won the Democratic nomination after eleven rounds of immediate runoff. So far, however, this survey is an outlier.)

Garcia’s dramatic improvement is most likely due to her support on May 10th by the Editor of the New York Times. Pollsters Change research was there May 6-12 and found 4 percent of respondents selected Garcia as their first choice before the Times’ confirmation, and 11 percent after it was confirmed. Usually newspaper notes do not affect how people vote, but they can still be valuable in certain circumstances, such as in primaries like New York City, where voters do not have partisan preferences. local races where the candidates are not very well known or elections in which many voters are undecided. (Another major development in the mayor race in recent weeks has been one Sexual assault allegation against Stringer. However, polls held him everywhere in May 7 percent to 15 percent So it’s unclear whether the scandal hurt him.)

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However, be careful with polls from this race. It’s hard enough to accurately query an unusually timed local election. it is even harder to query one exactly using a ranked poll. For example, the fact that if their first choice is eliminated, the vote will be assigned to a person of their second choice, that the candidate with the most votes in first place will not necessarily be the winner, and some respondents won’t even bother to to simulate the subsequent immediate drains.

At this point, it sure looks like New York City has a competitive race ahead of them – with enough time for the race to evolve before Election Day on June 22nd.

Andrew Cuomo is still in the hot seat

Almost three months have passed since then practically every great politician in New York called on Governor Andrew Cuomo to resign over numerous Sexual harassment allegations and its administration reported covering up the number of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes. Still, Cuomo still occupies the governor’s office and the excitement over the scandals has subsided calmed down. At least in Albany.

According to a Poll at Siena College Ordinary New Yorkers enlisted last week have not changed their minds about their governor much. Registered voters give him a 42 percent approval rating and a 55 percent disapproval rate, virtually identical to the 42-56 percent approval-disapproval rating they gave him April. And while a small number of New Yorkers have always told Siena that Cuomo should Not Resignation, voters are still as divided on this issue as they were a month or two ago. In fact, the 41 percent who currently believe he is should Resignation is even a bit higher than in April (37 percent) and March (35 percent).

Back in March we wrote about four possible avenues for Cuomo’s political future. While it now looks like # 1 (resignation) is unlikely to happen, its poor poll ratings suggest that the # 2 (retirement) or # 3 (loss of re-election) options are still very suggestive lying on the table.

Biden makes guidelines less popular through associations

In a just published Poll from April 12th to 19thCole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, a pollster in Oklahoma, told half of his respondents, “It has been suggested that you do this Amtrak passenger traffic increase in Oklahoma by running a train north from Oklahoma City to connect to other existing lines in Kansas and increasing the frequency of connections to Ft. Worth ”and asked if they were for it. A whopping 71 percent said yes, while only 15 percent were against enlargement.

But if you don’t live in Oklahoma, the really interesting thing about this survey was how CHS & Associates asked the other half of the sample. The pollster told them that “Part of the federal infrastructure plan presented by President Biden [emphasis mine] will improve Amtrak passenger traffic in Oklahoma by moving a train north from Oklahoma City to connect to other existing routes in Kansas and increasing the frequency of connections to Ft. Value. “Of this half of the sample, only 57 percent were in favor, while 29 percent were against.

In other words, linking the policy to Biden decreased support by 14 percentage points. The poll is another reminder of how strong the partisan identity (Oklahoma is a very red state) can be, that it actually influences political preferences and not the other way around. In this case, it is not uncommon for red states to adopt liberal policies by election – Oklahoma, in fact voted to expand Medicaid only last year – but thanks to our increasingly nationalized policies, voters in these states almost never vote for the politicians who support these policies.

Edmund Burke was wrong

In 1774, Edmund Burke, a Member of the British Parliament, established a fundamental principle of representative democracy when he said in a speech: “Your representative owes you not only his industry, but his judgment as well; and he betrays instead of serving you when he sacrifices it to your opinion. ”

But here in 2021, that isn’t a widespread belief. According to a national survey from May 14-17 by Echelon InsightsFifty-nine percent of registered voters believe that a member of Congress “should always reflect the views of voters in his or her district, even if he or she does not personally approve”. Only 28 percent agreed with Burke that a representative “should always vote on his own views and principles, even if they sometimes differ from the views of voters in his district.”

It is probably no surprise that a group of voters believe that members of Congress should always do what voters want them to do. And in Burke’s day it was probably no different: a few years after that speech, Burke lost the re-election.

Biden approval

According to FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Approval Tracker, 54.2 percent of Americans are in favor of Biden’s work as president, while 40.4 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of +13.9 points). At this point last week, 52.9 percent agreed and 40.9 percent disagreed (a net approval rating of +12.0 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rate of 54.4 percent and a disapproval rate of 41.3 percent, which corresponds to a net approval rate of +13.0 points.

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