The redistricting cycle is about to begin

These reallocation dates usually arrive in late December at the end of each decade, but the pandemic and the Trump administration’s attempt to prevent undocumented immigrants from being included in the census have delayed the process. These data also only give the topline numbers: the number of Districts each state will receive and how many people will live in each district. The more detailed data needed to make maps will not be available until later this fall.

Congressmen have a rough idea of ​​how seats will be split thanks to projections from other sources, but unanswered questions about the 2020 census have made reallocation less secure than usual at this point. These data will give the following answers:

The battle for the 435th seat

Using a formula based on the total number of residents on the ten-year list, the Census Bureau will assign congressional districts from one to 435 to each state. The latest July 2020 estimates suggest a showdown between a handful of states for the final seat with the most likely head-to-head match against New York Alabama.

New York will almost certainly lose one seat, but if it ousts Alabama for the permanently assigned district it could avoid losing a second. If Alabama gets it, its delegation will remain stable at seven seats.

If Alabama is the loser, the state’s Republican delegation will shrink because the only Democratic district held by Rep. Terri Sewell is protected by suffrage. With GOP MP Mo Brooks already announced that he is vacating his northern Alabama seat for a Senate run, GOP lawmakers in Montgomery could protect any remaining people Official. Or it could bring newcomers Barry Moore and Jerry Carl together in the southern half of the state and spark a major battle between two new members.

A decline from 27 to 25 seats would be a nightmare for New York. Republicans have the most to fear because Democrats mostly do control the process. The delegation has eight Republicans; One, Rep. Tom Reed, is retiring, while two others, Rep. Lee Zeldin and Elise Stefanik, could run for governor. Zeldin has already stated. Democrats now have a long wish list for 2022: They support Democratic Representatives Antonio Delgado and Sean Patrick Maloney and reclaim the seats of Republican Representatives John Katko and Claudia Tenney.

The other states that might be lucky enough to secure the 435th and final seat of the House: Florida and Texas – which could get two and three seats respectively – and two Midwestern states that are each slated to lose one seat, it unless the numbers break their way: Minnesota and Ohio.

Will California lose a seat for the first time?

California is most likely losing a district, a product of slower population growth in recent years. The state failed to win a seat for the first time after the 2010 census when it remained stable at 53 seats. Now it probably drops to 52.

It is an amazing turning point from a few decades ago. As of the 1990 census, California received a whopping seven seats. But it only won one in 2000, then was unchanged in 2010.

The commission that will cut open the state’s Congress card is impartial. But the Republicans only hold 11 of the districts, so it’s hard to imagine they’re getting too big a hit. Democrats in the Los Angeles area could face a particular crisis. The delegation is likely to prepare for some awkward member-member showdowns that repeat two major battles between seated Democratic members of Congress a decade ago: Rep. Brad Sherman ousted then Rep. Howard Berman and then Rep. Janice Hahn has eliminated her colleague Laura Richardson.

How many rust belt conditions will shrink?

The Midwest is losing influence in Congress, but there is still uncertainty about how much. Ohio and Minnesota are bracing themselves for losses that would reduce them to 15 districts and seven districts, respectively. However, there is a possibility that both will remain stable – a pleasant surprise for both delegations.

By now, Illinois is almost certainly losing one of his 18 districts – and chances are he could lose a second. That would be tough on Democrats who want to protect Democratic Reps Lauren Underwood and Cheri Bustos in the north and target GOP Rep Rodney Davis in the hinterland.

There is less uncertainty in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Their population has grown so slowly that one district is almost guaranteed to be buried at a time.

Will Texas and Florida get multiple seats?

The latest census data suggests that these two sun belt states are likely to gain in importance. Florida could grow from 27 to 29 seats, and Texas could rise from 36 to 39 seats. However, the second headquarters in Florida and the third in Texas are not guaranteed.

Any change in delegation size in these states will benefit the GOP, which in both cases has complete control of the map drawing process and tries to maximize its advantage. National, Republicans only need five seats to retake the house. You could do that with these new additions alone if both states win big next week. Texas is growing so fast that there is a chance one of their new seats will be competitive for Democrats, but most expect the new Florida districts to be heavily favored by the GOP.

Will Montana get a seat?

Montana fell into a single district after the 1990 census, but it’s now well positioned for a comeback. The latest estimates suggest that Montana will get a second seat.

Democrats have won other offices in Montana nationwide, but they have not held their seats in the House since the 1992 resignation of Democratic MP Pat Williams. Still, a commission will draw the maps in Montana, diminishing the power of the Republican governor and legislature. A map dividing the state in half could create a competitive seat in the western half of the state.

But Montana’s gain is Rhode Island’s loss. The former was in the middle of the decade ahead of the latter, which means Rhode Island is likely to lose its second seat when the final numbers are released. Democratic Representatives David Cicilline and Jim Langevin have to decide if they have the stomach for a head-to-head showdown.

What would the 2020 elections look like under new cards?

The redistribution will also improve the composition of the electoral college and give additional power to states that are growing faster. If the 2020 presidential election were to be held again according to the census projections of the new electoral college, the electoral vote of today’s President Joe Biden would decrease slightly from 306 to 301. Former President Donald Trump was due to the growth of the states he won, such as Texas and Florida, would earn 237 votes compared to the 232 he received.

But the new numbers to be released next week won’t mean much of a change on the electoral college battlefield. States that had a presidential lead of 10 points in 2020 would have a total of 206 votes for the electoral college according to the new estimate, compared to the 203 votes they actually cast in 2020.

Zach Montellaro contributed to this report.

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