We’re Tracking Trump’s And Harris’s Popularity Ahead Of The 2024 Presidential Election. (Yes, It’s Early.)

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly poll summary.

Former President Donald Trump ended his presidency less popular than any of the last 12 presidents at the end of their first term, and he is still unpopular after the new average of FiveThirtyEight’s new average of Trump’s favor numbers. Currently, 41.4 percent of Americans have a positive opinion of the former president, while 53 percent have a negative opinion of him.

Overall, Trump’s disfavor – now that he’s out of office, his favor numbers and not his approval ratings, both of which are gaining popularity – has remained constant, as has his low approval ratings mostly during his presidency. Its popularity declined after the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, which meant that when we started tracking these numbers in February, its general preference was quite small. But as you can see in the graph above, Trump’s favor numbers are more or less back where his approval ratings were before the uprising.

It is true that Trump is still more unpopular than popular with the entire American public. Despite Trump’s general disfavor, as my colleague Nathaniel Rakich wrote last week, the majority of Republicans want Trump to run for president again, with polls suggesting that Republicans overall thought Trump has had a positive impact on politics.

We have never sought the favor of former presidents before, but Trump’s continued influence in the Republican Party is unusual. Hence, we will be monitoring its popularity in the run-up to midterms 2022 and beyond. If he remains a major player in the party, and if Republican voters remain enthusiastic about his candidacy, it could prove beneficial for a potential 2024 presidential run.

In this context, we are also introducing a new average for Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s because Joe Biden, America’s oldest sitting presidentHe will not necessarily run for re-election in 2024. He even called himself a “Transition candidate” on the 2020 campaign path, so it’s important to see what Americans think of his # 2 as Harris may run for president in 2024. Harris’ approval rating is currently 42.7 Percent, while their rejection rating is 52.5 Percent.

We’re Tracking Trump’s And Harris’s Popularity Ahead Of The 2024 Presidential Election. (Yes, It’s Early.) 2

What is noteworthy, however, is that Harris’ reputation is not as good as Biden’s. Both their approval and their disapproval are worse than his. The president’s approval is currently at 43.7 percent and his rejection at 51 percent.

Certainly Harris’s numbers are not Everyone this is different from Biden’s – her general job admission seems largely tied to his at this point – but The Los Angeles Times Harris Favorability Tracker found that out the VP’s net benefit (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) is lower than that of former Vice Presidents Mike Pence, Biden, Dick Cheney and Al Gore. They also note in their analysis that Harris’ favor waned in June after she was hired to Fight Immigration, a sensitive issue for Democrats.

It is also possible, like Peter Nicholas wrote in The Atlantic in Augustthat racism and sexism could be responsible for Harris’s low numbers. At FiveThirtyEight we wrote that women politicians, and especially women of color like Harris, often have a different standard than men. And, as Nicholas noted in his article, Harris has a high margin of disadvantage in men (now 17 percentage points behind the Los Angeles Times).

Ultimately, however, it’s still very early on at this point and a lot is likely to change before the 2024 presidential election. But in the meantime, we’ll be tracking Trump’s popularity numbers and Harris’ approval ratings to get a better sense of how Americans think of them – especially if one or both of them are on the ballot in 2024.

Other polling bites

  • Election day is next Tuesday and one of the closest races to watch is the Virginia Governor’s race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin. While McAuliffe stayed in the lead, the race is now getting closer. A recent poll from Emerson College / Nexstar Media shows a tie with 49 percent of likely voters supporting McAuliffe and 49 percent of likely voters supporting Youngkin. The FiveThirtyEight poll average for the Virginia race is now 47.6 percent for McAuliffe and 46.1 percent for Youngkin.
  • There is also a gubernatorial race in New Jersey on Tuesday. There the New Jerseyans will decide whether to keep Democratic Governor Phil Murphy in office or replace him with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli. Some recent polls suggest a close race, but a Monmouth University survey The study released on Wednesday found that Murphy is 11 points ahead of Ciattarelli, 50 to 39 percent of the registered voters. That translates to a double-digit lead for Murphy, but his lead has fallen 2 points since Monmouth last polled voters in September.
  • More Americans are now saying they want an increase in police spending, pro a recent poll from the Pew Research Center. The poll found that 21 percent of Americans want a “big increase” in police spending, up 10 points from 2020. While a majority of Americans, 37 percent, would like police spending to stay the same, that number has fallen 5 points since 2020.
  • An advisory body to the Food and Drug Administration has agreed Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech for children between the ages of 5 and 11, which makes it likely that children could get the injection as early as November. However, among Americans, support for vaccinating children against COVID-19 is divided along well-known party lines. A majority of Democrats, 81 percent, support COVID-19 vaccines for children ages 5 to 11, while 54 percent of Republicans, according to a recent release Progress survey data.
  • According to some parents, a. also concerned about the possible side effects of the vaccine current survey by Ipsos / Marketing for Change. The survey found that 48 percent of parents with children ages 5-11 weighed the side effects of the vaccine, while 40 percent said protecting their child from contracting COVID-19 was a factor. Another 36 percent said their children’s ability to participate in school activities that require vaccination is a factor in their decision to vaccinate their children.

Biden approval

We’re Tracking Trump’s And Harris’s Popularity Ahead Of The 2024 Presidential Election. (Yes, It’s Early.) 4

According to FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Approval Tracker, 43.7 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s job as president, while 51 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -7.3 points). At this point last week, 43.7 percent were approved and 50.0 percent rejected (a net approval rating of -6.4 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rate of 45.3 percent and a rejection rate of 48.9 percent, which corresponds to a net approval rating of -3.6 points.

General ballot

We’re Tracking Trump’s And Harris’s Popularity Ahead Of The 2024 Presidential Election. (Yes, It’s Early.) 6

In our average of the polls for the generic congressional vote, the Democrats are currently leading with 2.5 percentage points (43.9 percent to 41.4 percent). A week ago, the Democrats led the Republicans with 2.6 points (44.1 percent to 41.6 percent). At that time last month, voters preferred the Democrats with 3 points (44.7 percent versus 41.7 percent).

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