Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly poll summary.
The Democrats in Congress have a lot to do this fall. You were able to get a deal with the Republican legislature avert a government shutdownbut when it comes to passing the rest of President Biden’s agenda, including both ambitious spending plan of $ 3.5 trillion and a bipartisan infrastructure agreement, Democrats have a lot to sort out. It’s too early to say how compromised either bill is – assessing the inner-party divisions among Democrats is difficult – but the fact that Republicans in the Senate did say they will refuse help raise the debt ceiling presents the Democrats with a real legislative challenge.
Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said said the US could run out of money by October 18thwhich makes it impossible for the US to meet its current financial obligations and creates a risk of default that it believes would be a “calamity” for the economy. And because almost all of the Senate Republicans have announced they will not vote to raise the debt ceiling, they now have one Chicken game arguing that the Democrats alone must pass an increase through budget comparison, while the Democrats are against the GOP joining them in a bipartisan vote to raise it, which is generally the case previously worked in the Senate.
But at this point a new poll from Politico / Morning Consult suggests that public opinion should not urge any party, particularly the Republicans, to change course. Overall, 31 percent of registered voters said they would primarily blame the Democrats if the country went bankrupt with its debts, while 20 percent said they would primarily blame the GOP. However, the majority (39 percent) said they would blame both parties equally, while 11 percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion.
Americans too are torn over whether to raise the debt ceiling, despite it severe consequences to the fail to raise it. A poll carried out earlier this week by The Hill / HarrisX found that 54 percent of registered voters opposed an increase in the cap, while 46 percent supported the increase. (The survey did not include a “don’t know” option which, as we shall see, could be important.) In the meantime, a weekly poll by The Economist / YouGov found that 34 percent of adults were in favor of an increase and 32 percent were against it, while the remaining 34 percent were undecided. In both polls, Republicans strongly opposed raising the debt ceiling, while Democrats were similarly supportive of an increase. The position of the independents on the issue was more unclear, but the polls showed that these voters were a little more opposed to raising the debt ceiling than they supported.
However, it is likely that many Americans do not understand what the debt ceiling is or what it entails to raise it. Consider the high percentage of respondents in The Economist / YouGov survey who said they were unsure. Part of what is tricky here is the debt ceiling that is referring to Debt and financial commitments that the US has already entered into – such as interest on the country’s debt or previously approved expenses such as social security benefits. That said, the debt limit is not an instrument that the New Expenditures, since such expenses are decided in very special laws, such as a bill for the next federal budget.
Unfortunately, we don’t have current surveys examining Americans’ understanding of the debt limit, but previous surveys confirm the idea that many people don’t understand what it is or what the risks are if it isn’t increased. In a 2013 HuffPost / YouGov For example, in one survey, 42 percent of Americans correctly answered that a higher debt limit would allow the country to pay interest on its already approved debts and spending, but 39 percent incorrectly stated that the debt limit directly affects government spending and the amount of debt increases the US holds. This survey also revealed a lot of uncertainty, as 20 percent said they weren’t sure what the debt ceiling increase would mean. A Washington Post / Pew Research Center survey from 2011 – as the debt cover debate was particularly tense – also reflected a misunderstanding of the consequences of raising or not raising the debt ceiling. In the survey, more Americans were concerned about what would happen if the debt ceiling was raised than if it weren’t: 48 percent were more concerned that raising the debt ceiling would lead to more spending and debt, while 35 percent were more concerned that raising the debt ceiling would lead to more spending and debt, while 35 percent were more concerned that raising the debt ceiling would lead to more spending and debt, while 35 percent were more concerned about what would happen if the debt ceiling was raised Percent More Concerned Failure to raise the upper limit would force a default and cause economic damage.
However, the political consequences of the general lack of understanding among the public are important because it can guide the parties’ position on the debt ceiling. And Republicans could benefit the most, as their current opposition to raising the debt ceiling could be seen by the electorate as part of their opposition to the Democrats’ spending plans. And this despite the fact that the debt ceiling debate is about paying off existing financial obligations – such as previously approved expenses and interest on accrued debt from previous administrations of both parties – rather than any future commitments the Democrats’ budget proposal might bring. How the battle over the debt ceiling will play out in the coming weeks is unclear, but if neither party blinked or reached a bipartisan solution, the country would be breaking new ground with potentially catastrophic financial consequences. And the question of which party is to blame should then be much more complicated for the voters.
Other polling bites
- Over 650 people who stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6 to overthrow the 2020 elections were arrested and charged. But while the FBI tries to identify more rioters, 48 percent of US adults thought the sentences were being imposed, according to a recent one Pew Research Center survey that asked about the storming of the Capitol and the associated investigation of the house. Still, 57 percent of Republicans said there was too much exposure by Jan 6, and Americans as a whole aren’t sure of the fairness of the investigation, with a majority of Americans (54 percent) not overly confident or not at all confident.
- The Hispanic population accounted for 51 percent of the U.S. population growth between 2010 and 2020, with 19 percent of the country now identifying as either Hispanic or Latino, according to data Data from the 2020 census. The majority of Hispanic Americans (54 percent) have no preference as to whether they describe themselves as Hispanic or Latino. according to Pew. However, when it comes to Latinx, only 3 percent of Hispanic Americans use the term, and another 76 percent say they haven’t even heard of it.
- On Tuesday, Pfizer and BioNTech submitted study data on the use of COVID-19 vaccines in children ages 5-11 to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. And that’s good for some parents with children under the age of 12, as well last Gallup poll found that 55 percent of these parents said they would vaccinate their children pending FDA approval. And as a delta variant continues to spread, 53 percent of parents of children under the age of 18 feared their child would contract the virus, and a large number of parents of school-age children said schools had one of all students (47 percent) and teachers and staff (49 percent) Masking should require.
- The FDA Covid-19 vaccine approved by Pfizer on August 23 and after a Gallup September poll, 75 percent of adults in the United States said they were fully or partially vaccinated. And for the first time since Gallup started asking the question in January, a majority of Republicans (56 percent) were wholly or partially vaccinated. The proportion of Republicans vaccinated has increased 6 percentage points since August. For comparison: 92 percent of Democrats were wholly or partially vaccinated.
- John Kerry, the president’s special envoy on climate, said every country needs to respond quickly to climate change current interview with ABC News before the United Nations Climate Change Conference. But a Pew poll out of 17 countries found that people felt the world is fine with climate change. A median of 56 percent of respondents believed that their own society was doing a good job in dealing with global climate change. But that doesn’t mean they were confident that this action would make a difference. The same survey found that a median of 52 percent of respondents were not confident that efforts by the international community would significantly reduce the effects of climate change.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Approval Tracker, 44.8 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s job as president, while 48.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -3.8 points). At this point last week, 45.8 percent were approved and 48.7 percent rejected (a net approval rating of -2.9 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 47.0 percent and a disapproval rating of 47.6 percent (a net approval rating of -0.7 points).
On our average of the polls in the generic congressional vote, Democrats currently lead Republicans with 3.3 percentage points (45.0 percent and 41.7 percent, respectively). A week ago, the Democrats led the Republicans with 2.7 points (44.4 percent to 41.8 percent). At that time last month, voters preferred the Democrats to the Republicans with 3.4 points (43.8 percent versus 40.4 percent).