Thirty-five average as of Monday night: Biden +2.6
FiveThirtyEight Finale 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Trump +2.4
Result 2016: Trump +3.5
The last live interview poll in Arizona, one NBC News / Marist polI released on Monday and showed a tie race in Arizona, 48 to 48 percent.
However, Biden leads on the survey average as other late-stage polls gave him the edge, including a 6-point lead in a New York Times / Siena College poll out on Sunday.
Florida (29 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +2.5
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Prediction: Clinton +0.6
Result 2016: Trump +1.2
Biden steps into the election about 2 points stronger than Clinton in 2016, when Trump emerged with a 1-point victory.
The last live caller poll from Quinnipiac University, showed Biden by 5 points – although Quinnipiac overestimated the Democrats in the state in the meantime in 2018.
Georgia (16 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +1
FiveThirtyEight Finale 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Trump +4
Result 2016: Trump +5.1
Georgia ran away from Trump in the polls: on the eve of the 2016 elections, he led by 4 points and won with 5 points – the rare state in which Trump did not perform significantly on election day.
He and Biden are neck to neck now, with the Democrat a point ahead of thirty-five on average.
Iowa (6 votes):
Thirty-five average: Trump +1.4
FiveThirtyEight Finale 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Trump +2.9
Result 2016: Trump +9.4
The most promising news for Trump in the polls in the 72 hours leading up to the election came from Iowa, where a Des Moines Register / Mediacom poll showed the president 7 points ahead.
That is not the average that a closer race showed. But the registry’s final poll was better than the 2016 average for Trump too – and it was right.
Michigan (16 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +8
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Clinton +4.2
Result 2016: Trump +0.2
Biden’s 8-point lead in Michigan – the state of Trump, won by the smallest margin in 2016 – is almost double what Hillary Clinton’s lead was before 2016.
The live interview polls for the last two weeks of the race gave Biden between 7 and 12 points ahead. They would have to be far away for Trump to win there again.
Minnesota (10 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +9.4
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Clinton +5.8
2016 result: Clinton +1.5
Trump’s narrow defeat in Minnesota was an underrated surprise from 2016. To be a real challenge there this year, he would have to overcome a larger Biden advantage of almost 10 points.
Nevada (6 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +4.8
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Prediction: Clinton +1.8
2016 result: Clinton +2.4
Nevada was another state where Trump didn’t top his polls in 2016. This makes his current 5-point deficit seem more daunting.
New Hampshire (4 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +11.1
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Clinton +3.6
2016 result: Clinton +0.4
Trump’s narrow defeat in New Hampshire in 2016 came within 4 points of the polls after entering election day. It’s now down at least twice as much: two academic pollsters showed Biden 8 points ahead of him last week.
North Carolina (15 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +1.9
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Prediction: Clinton +0.7
Result 2016: Trump +3.6
As in 2016, polls in North Carolina are tight. There’s a small gap between the live interview polls – the last two of CNN / SSRS and NBC News / Marist, showed Biden 6 points ahead – and web polls showed essentially a tie.
Trump exceeded his polls there in 2016 and won the state with almost 4 points. It was an early sign that night was making its way into a state where polls closed early (7:30 p.m. east).
Ohio (18 votes):
Thirty-five average: Trump +0.7
FiveThirtyEight Finale 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Trump +1.9
Result 2016: Trump +8.1
This is the only one of the 13 states in this analysis where Trump currently leads the polling average – even after a Quinnipiac poll on Monday gave Biden a 4-point advantage.
Pennsylvania (20 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +4.8
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Clinton +3.7
Result 2016: Trump +0.7
Biden is in better shape than Clinton at most likely turning point – but not by much. With a lead of around 5 points, he is just above Clinton’s lead of almost 4 points four years ago.
Trump’s only lead is polls from two Republican pollsters, while the other polls show Biden is ahead – and at or above 50 percent in a major difference from 2016. This includes two polls on Monday: on NBC News / Marist Poll shows Biden ahead, 51 percent to 46 percent, and a Monmouth University survey shows similar numbers among its various switch models.
Texas (38 votes):
Thirty-five average: Trump +1
FiveThirtyEight Finale 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Trump +8.5
Result 2016: Trump +9
Unlike some of the main battlefields, the election in Texas slowed down by the end of the election. But Trump only starts by a 1-point lead – a worrying sign after essentially completing his polls when he won the state by 9 points in 2016.
Wisconsin (10 votes):
Thirty-five average: Biden +8.2
FiveThirtyEight Final 2016 “Polls Only” Forecast: Clinton +5.3
Result 2016: Trump +0.8
Of the Great Lakes battlefield states that Trump turned around in 2016, coronavirus-ravaged Wisconsin was its weakest in public polls. The latest poll by the New York Times / Siena College found that Biden is 11 points ahead – although Trump is a little closer on other polls.