Virtually all Congressional Democrats and even some Republicans have condemned President Trump’s instigation of the Capitol uprising. Virtually all Congressional Democrats and even some Republicans seem to want Trump to leave office as soon as possible. The US House of Representatives is likely to indict Trump for the second time this week At least five Republicans are likely to vote in favor. Allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as first reported by the New York Times and then confirmed by ABC News, McConnell says Trump has committed criminal acts and assists Democrats in impeachment.
Where are we all of this? It’s complicated. It’s still pretty likely that Trump will stay in office until January 20, with the House indicting Trump in a largely partisan vote but the Senate not starting impeachment until January 20, when President-elect Joe Biden takes office occurs. Even so, we have to wait and see how everything turns out to be sure. In any case, we know that a big step has taken place in this process at Tuesday evening: The House adopted a resolution Call on Vice President Mike Pence and the remaining members of Trump’s cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment and remove Trump from the presidency.
That vote was historic – the House voted for it Charges against three presidents (including Trump) but never formally proposed to remove the president from his cabinet before. At the same time, the vote has no real impact. Pence said in a letter to Pelosi that was released prior to the vote that he and the cabinet won’t try to force Trump out of office over the 25th amendment. The vote on Tuesday was really just a prelude to a separate vote on Trump’s impeachment, which could take place on Wednesday. House Democrats have promised to indict Trump a second time if cabinet doesn’t remove him.
Tuesday evening’s vote on the resolution on the 25th amendment is symbolic, but it helps us to understand some of the dynamics within the two parties – especially if you take them into account, along with last week’s votes to confirm the November election results. Here are four things we learned …
Most of the House Republicans still strongly agree with Trump.
Just 83 of the 204 House Republicans Participants in the vote last week opposed efforts to effectively disqualify the Arizona presidential election. Just 64 of the 202 House Republicans Participants in the vote opposed efforts to disqualify the Pennsylvania election results. In other words, a clear majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives voted to lock down the Arizona and Pennsylvania presidents’ results, joining Trump’s efforts to disqualify the swing states where he narrowly lost. And those were votes cast after Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol.
On Tuesday night, the number of House Republicans willing to call for Trump to be impeached was even lower – only one, Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, supported the resolution calling for Trump to be removed. There may be some Republicans voting for impeachment, but not the 25th Amendment resolution (more on this below). But it is likely that the vast majority of Republicans will resist any effort to remove Trump from office, regardless of method.
The upcoming impeachment vote will be the fourth vote in a week, which is practically evidence of how loyal a Republican in the House of Representatives is to Trump and Trump’s supporters. And it seems that most of the House Republicans will side with Trump every four times, though an attack on the Capitol, inspired in part by Trump’s words, led to the result Five people diedand could easily have resulted in members of Congress and even pence being killed.
It’s worth noting that strong support for Trump among Republicans in the House of Representatives may not be shared in the Senate. Just eight of the 51 Republicans in the Senate supported efforts to contest the results in either Arizona, Pennsylvania, or both states. Unlike McConnell, the allies of Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the House’s chief Republican, have not suggested that McCarthy be open to Trump’s impeachment. However, it is not clear that many Senate Republicans support the appeal on the 25th amendment or are attempting to impeach Trump and remove it. (More on that in a minute).
There was a big difference between confirming Biden’s victory and calling for Trump to be removed.
The 63 Republican Members of the House who confirmed the election results in both Arizona and Pennsylvania came from across the ideological and geographic spectrum – some were fairly moderate members from more liberal areas, like New York MP John Katko, but some were also conservatives from far-right areas, especially the No. 3 Republican in the party leadership, Liz Cheney Wyoming.
But even for these Republicans, removing Trump seems to be going too far. MEPs Fred Upton from Michigan, Jaime Herrera Beutler from Washington, Katko and Cheney have said they will support the impeachment even though they did not support the 25th Amendment Process like Kinzinger did. Overall, however, there is little evidence that most of these 63 members will vote for impeachment.
The impeachment in the House of Representatives does not need a Republican vote as the Democrats are in the majority and are likely to support the impeachment in general. But that feeling of the House could also be an indication of things in the Senate …
It’s not exactly clear what the Senate Republicans will do.
McConnell does have the idea that he’s frustrated with Trump, but so does suggested that the Senate cannot initiate impeachment proceedings until January 19According to a memo he sent to Republican senators and received by the Washington Post. If the Senate really wanted to kick Trump out right now, they’d probably find a way to do it. What’s more likely is that McConnell wants to publicly get the message across that he’s personally mad at Trump, but doesn’t necessarily require Republican senators to put them on record with a vote. Remember, McConnell just won a six-year term in 2020 and is 78 years old. He’s probably not as concerned about being inadequately pro-Trump and losing a Republican elementary school in 2026 if he opts for another term at the age of 84. But younger Republican senators, those with ambitions to be president and / or those pending re-election next year may want to avoid Trump either being defended or removed from office.
So it’s not clear whether McConnell would move to a vote before January 20th. There is still no shouting from GOP senators urging the Senate to meet immediately after the indictment against Trump, nor is it clear that anywhere near the 18 GOP senators would be needed to get him out remove the office. So unless things change dramatically in terms of the GOP Senators’ stance, Trump will likely stay in office on Jan. 20
By the end of this month, Democratic Senate Chairman Charles Schumer will be the majority leader with a 50:50 Senate and Vice President Kamala Harris as the majority vote. There is little precedent for this, however Some legal experts say that the Senate could convict Trump with two-thirds of the vote for impeachment, even if he is not in office. Then with a simple majority in the Senate could vote in favor of banning Trump from holding office again. But I should emphasize: we have no idea if any of this is going to happen. In the absence of Trump, would Democrats, especially Biden, focus on focusing on the Democrats’ political agenda rather than trying to punish Trump? Would the Senate Republicans try to condemn Trump and expel him from running again? Would disqualifying Trump from other offices withstand legal challenges?
Democrats blame Trump like no other president.
All 222 Congress Democrats who took part in the vote on Tuesday backed the appeal on the 25th amendment. The impeachment is also likely to be a unanimous vote among the Democrats. This is not surprising – in 2019, all but three of the 232 House Democrats backed Trump’s impeachment over his plan to force the Ukrainian government to investigate the Bidens. There has been some sales in terms of Members, but the vast majority of House Democrats have already tried to force Trump out of office and are likely comfortable casting such votes again, especially given the terrible incident at the Capitol last week .
Combined with today’s resolution on the 25th Amendment and the 2019 impeachment, Democrats made sure that Trump was rebuked by the House of Representatives in a way that no previous president has been: both indicted and called upon by the President’s Cabinet out of the Office to be removed. No president has been charged in two separate cases (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were charged on multiple articles, but in the same series of house votes). House Democrats will almost certainly do Trump for the first time this week.