We are barely two months away from the last 2020 election, but Saturday will be the first congressional election of mid-term 2022: two special elections for the 2nd and 5th districts of Louisiana. While there is little question of which party will ultimately win each seat – the 2nd district is firmly Democratic, the 5th firmly Republican – these elections are not why they are interesting.
Always a state that marches to his own rhythmIn Louisiana, elections take place a little differently than in most other countries (as the election date on Saturday could imply): instead of playing off a Republican against a Democrat, the two elections are so-called jungle primaries, in which all candidates, regardless of their party, vote on the same election run. If neither candidate receives a majority of the votes, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on April 24th. So the big questions in Saturday’s elections are which wing of the Democratic Party is ahead in the 2nd – and whether a second round of voting will even be necessary in the 5th.
Back in November 75 percent of Louisiana 2nd district voters backed Joe Biden as president – but none contributed more to Biden’s victory than Rep. Cedric Richmond, Biden Campaign co-chair Who helped persuade him to run and took him through some of the toughest moments of the campaign. Biden rewarded Richmond with one of the earliest appointments to his administrationand on January 15, the five-year representative of Congress resigned to become director of the White House Public Relations Bureau.
And Richmond’s departure has left a power vacuum here District based in New Orleans that local politicians have hurried to fill: Fifteen candidates, including eight Democrats and four Republicans, are on the ballot. However, two clear leaders with similar profiles – even similar names – have emerged. Troy Carter and Karen Carter Peterson (no relationship) are both Democratic State senators from New Orleans. Both have a history of promotion to Congress (they even ran for that seat in 2006) and are long-time players in the democratic political establishment, but they come from different factions in that establishment.
Local energy brokers have largely lined up behind Carter, the senior Democrat in the Louisiana State Senate. And after appealOf the $ 519,000 Carter raised in January and February, 76 percent came from donors living in Louisiana. Carter also has arguably the campaign’s most valuable endorsement: that of Richmond itself. He is also politically affiliated with the Biden-Richmond wing of the party: He has said he prefers a public option over pay-in health care, and while promoting the Green New Deal for “a good blueprint“Doesn’t he think it’s realistic to implement all at once. On the campaign, too, he did emphasized his ability to build relationships with people of all political directions.
In contrast, Peterson is more progressive in politics and isn’t afraid to make waves: “If I go to Washington, it’s my job to disagree Steve Scalise all the time, ”she said said the lawyer. But the former leader of the Louisiana Democratic Party is also a pragmatist willing to compromise in order to achieve her goals. Her tenure as deputy chairman of the Democratic National Committee also gave her a decidedly national flair List of endorsers, under the heading of Stacey Abrams. Per roll call, at least half of the $ 450,000 she raised in January and February came from outside Louisiana. the democratic women’s group Emily’s List also has Spent $ 457,000 to help her get elected. Peterson is also on site BOLD, an influential political organization founded by her father frequent collisions with Richmond and his allies.
Survey to have consequent found Carter first with 23-35 percent and Peterson in second place with 17-24 percent. But polls from House have special elections such large margins of error that it is possible for another candidate to skip Peterson or Carter for a place in the virtually guaranteed runoff elections. Most likely, activist Democrat Gary Chambers is surprising, who ranks third in both the January-February fundraiser ($ 304,000) and polls (6-13 percent). Chambers shares Peterson’s progressive views, but better embodies the movement’s outsider ethos at the grassroots: he gained thousands of social media followers when a Video went viral of him During a hearing about renaming a high school named after Robert E. Lee, a white school council member was convicted of online purchases and 74 percent of his donation from January through February came from small donors, far more than Peterson (14 percent) or Carter ( 2 percent).
In particular, Carter, Peterson, and Chambers are all black, which means there is a good chance the 2nd District will continue to have a black representative. This is important for a district whose population is 61 percent black and its former representative was chairman of the Black Caucus of Congress.
While leaving Richmond was a long awaited developmentthe vacancy in the 5th Congressional District of Louisiana was unexpected. Indeed that Runoff Republican MP Ralph Abraham had wrapped himself up in early December to successfully retire, but then tragedy struck: GOP MP-Elect Luke Letlow announced this on December 18th he had tested positive for COVID-19 and complications from the disease only 11 days later demanded his life at the age of 41.
Given the district’s strong Republican bias – former President Trump won it with 30 points – and the deep GOP bank, many Republicans eyed the special time Waiting to see if Abraham could run for his old place. But then Julia Letlow, Letlow’s widow, announced their plans to run in January. Accompanied by notes from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House minority whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana, their campaign deterred other big names Letlow’s candidacy may have been compounded by the tragic circumstances surrounding it, but her front-runner status owes much to her own credentials As an administrator at the University of Louisiana Monroe, where she also became a finalist last year to become university president. Significantly, Letlow had raised Nearly $ 700,000 by the end of February, nearly ten times what the next contender raised.
So the main question for Saturday is whether Letlow will win a direct majority to avoid a runoff. There are no public polls, but given their fundraiser and support from GOP leaders, including Trump and former Vice President Mike PenceLetlow is almost certain to finish first. Nevertheless, there are a total of 12 candidates, so the rest of the field – eight of them No-Name Republicans – could attract just enough votes to keep Letlow below the 50 percent mark it needs to win. But if there is a runoff, Letlow will likely run up against Democrat Sandra “Candy” Christophe, who ran for the seat in 2020 and is the only Democrat running in the Special, which means she’s likely the most of the 30 percent or so The district will attract voting that is democratic. But in such a strong Republican seat, a runoff between Letlow and Christophe would be a formality.
In other words, whether it’s after Saturday or an April 24 runoff election, Letlow appears to be on his way to Congress, which would add to the record number Republican women in the home through Jan.. Letlow’s likely rise to Congress, sparked by tragedy, is reminiscent of another famous Louisian: the late one Rep. Lindy Boggs, Widow of the majority leader of the Democratic House Hale Boggs. In October 1972, Hale Boggs fought in Alaska Democratic MP Nick Begich – the father of former Alaska Senator Mark Begich – when their flight disappeared, never to be found. Boggs posthumously won re-election, but the house declared the seat vacantand triggered a special election in March 1973 won by his late wife Lindy Boggs. It remains to be seen whether Letlow will stay in Congress for many years – she said so intends to seek a full term in 2022 – but if she did it would be reminiscent of Boggs, who later represented the New Orleans area until 1991.