What We’re Watching In The New York City Mayoral Race

While New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s personal and professional scandals ruled the headlines, another piece of news unfolds in the Empire State. ON Crowd of candidates – more than two dozen so far – run for the Mayor of New York City. And although we are still months away from elementary school on June 22nd, the candidates have already dutifully appeared Zoom forums, Trade pushes over Issues like police finance and get ranked on TikTok through their bagel preferences.

We don’t make it a habit of covering mayor races at FiveThirtyEight, but this one is going to be great for New York City because it is just that fourth time in about half a century that the ballot papers do not contain an incumbent mayor standing for re-election (the current mayor, Bill de Blasio, is excluded from re-election due to term restrictions). There’s a lot to see already, too: early polls show the race already has one Front runneris a Wall Street favorite busy to collect money and the city has a new one Ranking voting systemwhich can add another crease to an already crowded elementary school.

Here are the four topics that we will keep an eye on over the next few months.

Can Andrew Yang maintain his front-runner status?

Once an unknown political candidate, businessman Andrew Yang became a national star after his unsuccessful running for the Democratic presidential primary last year. Despite leaving the race in February 2020He’s stayed relevant in part because of his die-hard following and his warnings that this is relevant Automation poses a threat to many jobs in the US and his signature President Campaign proposal give Americans a “universal basic income” of $ 12,000 a year.

His time on the national stage seems to be paying off in New York City as well. It’s still early in the race and very few polls have been taken so far, but of the three polls we have, all three show Yang to lead. In a January Core Decision Analytics surveyYang is the only poll of the three that measures who is a leader and who voters are most familiar with. He leads the Democratic field in both popularity and notoriety (28 percent chose him as a first choice, and he is known with a whopping 84 percent of respondents). It is led by the President of the City of Brooklyn, Eric Adams (17 percent selected him as first choice; 60 percent said they heard from him) and City Comptroller Scott Stringer (13 percent selected him as first choice; 66 percent have heard from him) persecuted. . The remaining candidates, meanwhile, are struggling to break out of the pack and are stuck in the single digits.

But getting to the top is one thing. Staying there is a different story.

Yang also came out of the gate with a series of gaffs. For example, he fumbled when asked why he fled the city for his back country home second home at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when travel was getting discouraged and he suggested Opening of a casino on Governors Island, now the site of a large park and a national monument. It has also been reported that he didn’t vote in the last four mayoral elections in New York City. Yang was also criticized when he ran for president his lack of government experienceAccording to a December, the two main problems faced by voters in choosing a candidate were a real problem in the mayor’s race as “responding to the coronavirus” and “improving wages and creating more jobs” Public opinion poll.

It is also likely that awareness of other candidates will increase as we near June, which means that Yang could lose his lead. But his second run for political office tests a somewhat novel proposal: Can someone come along limited institutional knowledge and no real government experience become the next mayor of New York City? “He certainly hasn’t done anything I’ve seen that shows a city issues command or the kind of really tough decisions that go with managing 325,000 people and $ 90 billion,” said Eric Phillips, a former spokesman by de Blasio, via Yang in The New York Times. “He wasn’t involved in the civil fabric of the city.”

How might a ranking vote affect the election?

New York City is also using ranked mayor primaries for the first time, so it may be more difficult to understand support for a candidate. Ranking voting has been conducted by the state of Maine and more than a dozen municipalities, and it works very simply: Voting asks voters to rate candidates from their first election to the last. If neither candidate wins a majority of the votes – which is likely given the size of the field – the last-seat candidate is eliminated and the candidate’s votes are distributed to the voter’s second choice. This process continues until a candidate has a majority and is declared the winner.

The process itself appears to be different from what New Yorkers are used to, and previous research has even linked this voting method to it lower turnoutBut there are other issues as well – particularly how this can complicate a politician’s ability to rely solely on their hometown base, which can play a big role in a crowded elementary school. For example, Adams could potentially win directly under a normal voting system a strong surge of support in central Brooklyn, where he has received significant support from black and Orthodox Jewish voters in his previous applications for electoral office. (Adams served four terms as senator before being elected president of the district in 2013.) However, with a ranking electoral system, it is unlikely that anyone will win this way very good in just one of the five boroughs. This candidate must ultimately be the second and third choice of voters in other districts as well.

Some believe that a ranking vote could harm Yang if he takes on the bulk of the incoming opposition and is not the second or third choice of his opponents’ supporters, while others believe he could benefit from the new system that is simply based on the Name recognition based. At this point, however, in the one poll that was asked for second and third choice of votersYang was not the voters’ second choice. Adams was at 11 percent. However, Yang was still the voters’ first choice (32 percent supported him). and in terms of the second choice of voters, Yang was not that far behind Adams at 9 percent. Many voters have not yet made up their minds either. 29 percent said they would not consider any of the candidates to be their second choice.

However, some campaigns have already triggered an alarm about the change in the ranking selection. Adams, for example, has supported a lawsuit try to stop the introduction of ranked voting on the grounds that the system is effectively disenfranchising non-English speaking and colored voters who may lack the time and resources to properly research each candidate and how the new voting system will work. (According to our analysis of 2019 U.S. census data, 62 percent of New Yorkers voting age are not white.) Though not everyone has bought this argument, including some non-white supporters of post-election voting. “It was just an insult to me,” said Bertha Lewis, the founder and president of the Black Institute, a Brooklyn-based think tank The Atlantic. “You mean to say that the voters are stupid.”

And at this point it is unclear whether a ranking vote would adversely affect New York color voters, especially: An electoral reform group, FairVotefound that several white districts elected a non-white representative 35 percent of the time before a ranked poll was held in parts of the Bay Area, California. However, in the ranking poll, the same districts elected a non-white representative 60 percent of the time.

Moving to ranked voting could also result in less negative attack ads for fear of alienating another candidate’s supporters. But it could also benefit candidates who are better established in city politics.

Who will grow progressives together?

The progressive movement has increasingly divided New York politicians, and we anticipate that this gap will also affect the mayor’s race. “The socialist left is on the rise, especially in areas where black and Latino residents are being torn from their lives,” said Rep. Hakeem Jeffries told the New York Times. “To the extent that the success of the socialist left is partly related to the gentrification of neighborhoods, it remains to be seen how this will affect a city-wide race.”

Outgoing progressive de Blasio is currently Underwater with votersbut as he moves to vacate the throne a hand full of candidates trying to replicate their successes, including a former legal advisor to their administration: Maya Wiley. And so far was Wiley Approved by a powerful union Representing Healthcare Workers, Local 1199 of the Service Employees International Union. In addition, it has positioned itself as Police reform expert and published an ambitious plan Shift $ 300 million in resources from police and correction departments to help 100,000 families in need pay for child and elderly care. By reducing the number of incoming cadets for the NYPD and Corrections Department by two years and reducing staff numbers by 2,250 police officers and 750 correctional officers, these families would receive $ 5,000 a year to pay for child and elderly care. (Another $ 200 million would come from federal and state grants.) Wiley was careful not to use her proposal as a plan for “disappoint the police, ”Because this very slogan remains unpopular among Americans.

At this point, Stringer could be Wiley’s main competitor. And so far the city calculator has won confirmation by the influential retail, wholesale and department stores union which, along with other major unions, endorsed then-spokeswoman for the city council, Christine Quinn, who refused to run this year, in the 2013 mayoral election. Stringer won that too approval the staunch Senator and Democratic Socialist of America Julia Salazar, along with others top-class progressives.

But Wiley and Stringer will likely have to expand their base as progressive candidates struggled to get elected in New York City. The move to the left fell short in the Democratic primary for Governor 2018, as Cuomo handily defeated Cynthia Nixon not only nationwide but also in New York City, where Cuomo won 66 percent of the vote to Nixon’s 33 percent. And even though Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez She famously won elementary school in 2018 By running to the left of ten-year-old incumbent Joe Crowley, other progressives lost the Congressional primaries in 2018 and 2020.

Can a Wall Street-type candidate prevail?

In a field of progressive candidates, at least one moderator stands out from the crowd: Ray McGuire, the former global head of corporate and investment banking at Citigroup. With his background as a senior Wall Street executive, his path to success so far seems to have depended on getting in touch with political leaders gathering support from donors with deep pockets.

In the months since his candidacy was announced, he has been collected well over 5 million US dollarsand pushes him to the top row of the race, despite being active for the first time. McGuire has also hired a who’s who in Democratic circles to conduct his behind-the-scenes operations: Basil Smikle, former Executive Director of the State Democratic Party, is his campaign managerand Amanda Bailey, the worked on the presidential campaigns from then-Sen. Kamala Harris and Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, is McGuire’s chief financial officer.

Also work in his favor? ON dedicated super PAC accused of raising its profile and increasing its campaigning efforts. Beyond that, and maybe a blow to the progressives in the race, McGuire also won the support by Gwen Carr, mother of Eric Garner, a Staten Island man whose death in 2014 by a police officer sparked national support for the Black Lives Matter movement.

In addition, McGuire and Adams, both black, are trying to get in touch with working-class black New Yorkers. They anticipate that the race will attract a wide range of voters who do not necessarily share the overtly progressive messages put forward by the other candidate.

Looking a little ahead, a Democrat wouldn’t be guaranteed victory in the general election just because he won the June primary, but he or she would almost certainly be the favorite since New York is one very blue condition. And we mean very blue: In New York City, Joe Biden won 76 percent of the vote compared to Donald Trump’s 23 percent. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won 79 percent to Trump’s 18 percent.

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