Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly survey.
Are Americans in favor of the post-Trump prominent politician? It seems so, according to recent polls. The consumer research platform Piplsay Found earlier this week Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they would like to see either or both actors Matthew McConaughey and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson bid for the Texas governorship and the US presidency, respectively. (Of course, the poll isn’t perfect – putting answers to the potential political aspirations of two different actors under one question is not a good use of the poll.) Other actors that people believed could be good future presidents included Angelina Jolie, Will Smith and Tom Hanks.
Johnson recently teased a run for higher officebut maybe it is McConaughey that we should pay more attention to. The Austin-based actor said – At least two times – that he “seriously considerA run for the governor of Texas although its policy is unclear. And earlier this week it was reported that at least one other celebrity was considering throwing their hat in the ring: it was said to have been former reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner Talks with political advisors She is considering running for California governor amid the likely recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom.
But how seriously should we take celebrities who express a desire to run for political office? And how likely is it that they actually win, especially when they play against seasoned politicians?
If history tells us anything, former President Donald Trump wasn’t an anomaly. Former Senator from Minnesota, Al Franken, who resigned on allegations of sexual misconduct was a writer and actor on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” in 2018 for almost two decades. And the Austrian actor Arnold Schwarzenegger used to be one Action movie star before he ran successfully for the Governor of California. Former President Ronald Reagan too was an actor.
Celebrities are not always so lucky, of course. Cynthia Nixon, who was Miranda Hobbes’ attorney on Sex and the City badly lost in their 2018 race against New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and I never understood how serious musician Kanye West’s 2020 presidential campaign was, but we’ve all seen this turn out (he got about 60,000 votes).
“Celebrities are a unique group of people who have had specific concerns in the past that they wanted to promote or endorse.” David James Jackson, a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University whose research focuses on the relationships between young people’s entertainment and political preferences, told me. “So it just seems like a natural extension of the increasing engagement of celebrities in politics to take the next step to run for office.”
It is possible that due to the polarization of our politics, celebrities are seen as attractive alternatives to politicians who are widespread did not like. Research has also found that would-be politicians can target the average man when they mediate They are ordinary Americans as opposed to seasoned lawmakers – hence Trumps calls for draining the swamp during his presidency.
Ultimately, however, it remains difficult to know which celebrity candidates need to win because we do little research on them. Not The lots Celebrities have applied for office – – most of the estimates I have seen Name just a few dozen Overall – and only a fraction of that number made it through their respective primary and was actually elected, Jackson said.
However, what works in favor of celebrities is at least one poll that found that neither Republicans nor Democrats are opposite run to them. Last summer The Daily Show and YouGov conducted a survey of nearly 2,500 panelists Each respondent was randomly assigned to 30 public figures who appeared in 15 head-to-head games. Everyone was asked which ones they would rather make president. Eighty-one percent of those polled chose one person: Morgan Freeman.
In a political environment where money and name recognition are key factors in winning an election, celebrities are able to perform well. In our own research into early primary polls, we found that well-known candidates who completed double-digit polls tend to win higher proportions of the primary vote in presidential elections. In the meantime, candidates with lower names only occasionally advanced to the general election. (Andrew Yang was not well known in the 2020 Democratic Elementary School, but after a surprising ending Behind top candidates, he’s currently benefiting from running for Mayor of New York City.)
What other factors do voters consider when it comes to Hollywood stars? Well, the Daily Show and YouGov poll also found that respondents preferred actors over news personalities, athletes, and reality TV personalities. And racing could be a factor too. Overall, three of the top five head-to-head matchup winners – Freeman, Denzel Washington, and Samuel L. Jackson – were Black.
Since celebrities generally have no experience of governing, they often do so They lack the skills and background that are needed be successful in government. Of course, this is not always the case: Reagan was a revered public figure, especially among Conservatives, and has influenced much of Republican politics since his time in the White House. On the other hand, however, Trump lost allies Towards the end of his tenure, he was criticized for how he ruled by members of his own party and left the office with one Approval rating in the low 30s (although many republicans still support him). Schwarzenegger was also criticized for things like during his tenure as governor unable to cope with the California budget crisis. When he stepped down, he also left one Billions in budget deficit and ended his term of office with an almost record-low approval rate of only 23 percent.
The perception that Hollywood celebrities are too liberal can also backfire. in the 2012 and in 2016 the Center for Responsive Politics found that individuals and companies in the television, film, and music industries overwhelmingly gave campaign money to Democrats over Republicans. (Conservative also berated celebrities to do their political opinions Part of their overall brand.) “Hollywood is perceived as being left to the public and their lives are so different from the public that their experiences may not be considered relevant to the typical voter,” said Jackson.
While public opinion is broadly in favor of celebrities, it’s hard to know how they would fare in elections – or afterwards. McConaughey, for example, would likely have great odds against incumbent Governor Greg Abbott, who it is, depending on which elementary school he chose sitting on millions of dollars before 2022. And Newsom will likely survive the ultra-blue California recall election, so a high profile republican like Jenner probably has no chance. However, this does not mean that political outsiders still do not see an opportunity to enter politics.
Other choice bites
- This is the second week of testimony in the murder trial for Derek Chauvin, the white cop who was kneeling on George Floyd’s neck for more than nine minutes. Floyd later died in police custody. Over the summer, The protests reached a feverwith a lot of Americans Demand for a police reform. Recent polls show that many Americans have strong opinions about Chauvin’s fate. The latest Economist / YouGov poll found that a majority of Americans (57 percent) believe chauvin should be found guilty – although we previously noted why it might be unlikely – versus 18 percent who said it shouldn’t. Although another 25 percent said they weren’t sure. Three other former officials involved in Floyd’s death and arrest will later be tried.
- Almost 100 days after thousands of Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol, it looks like many Republicans I still don’t think Trump is to blame for like that Events of January 6th went down. Only 11 percent of Republicans “I totally agree” with the statement that Trump is essentially “at least partially to blame” for the riots unchanged from the NBC News question in January. About 50 percent of Republicans said that according to a Survey conducted by Reuters and Ipsos.
- As President Biden campaigns for his administration’s vaccines, earlier this week, Biden has postponed the deadline For all US adults eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine May 1 through April 19, a new Gallup poll shows Americans have concerns about contracting the virus at an all-time low. According to the survey, 35 percent of adults in the United States are very or slightly concerned about the capture of COVID-19, the lowest point in Gallup’s trend since last April. Concern about contracting the novel coronavirus has decreased significantly among older Americans who have been among the first in line to be vaccinated in many states, the survey notes. And a majority of Americans believed the COVID-19 situation in the country was improving.
- Vaccination records have emerged as the latest topic of conversation among Republican politicians with the governors of both Texas and Florida Signing executive orders that prohibit the use of such documents in their respective states. However, surveys show that most adults prefer digital vaccination records – unless they are mandatory. A new Tomorrow consult the survey found that 63 percent of adults support the provision of digital vaccination certification, compared to 46 percent who would be in favor of vaccinated individuals requiring digital certification. Republicans, more than Democrats and independent voters, were more likely to express privacy concerns, the poll found.
- A new Gallup poll shows the largest party affiliation gap since 2012: 49 percent of adults in the United States say they identify with the Democratic Party or as independents who lean against democracy, versus 40 percent who identify as Republicans or slim Republicans. Of course, Democrats currently have certain things in their favor, like Biden’s popular American bailout plan and its relatively constant approval rating. However, the survey also found that, as in most non-election years, more people identify as independents (44 percent versus 38 percent in the final quarter of 2020). Gallup noted that this change in partisan allegiance hit Republicans most of all.