In 2021, the Democrats tried several times to pass federal voting rights, and each time it went something like this: Bills just tidied the house around face their downfall in the Senate when Republicans refused to cooperate and some Democrats rejected rule changes to the filibuster that would enable a vote along party lines.
But last week the Democrats announced they would Put voting rights in the foreground Once again. Seemingly energetic from the first anniversary of the January 6 uprising in the U.S. Capitol, as supporters of then-President Donald Trump tried to prevent the 2020 presidential election results from being confirmed, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer said his chamber would vote on easing soon filibuster rules so that the voting rights legislation possibly – finally – comes across the finish line.
We know that Republicans are united against the election-related actions of the Democrats. For Schumer’s plan to work, two senators from his 50-member parliamentary group, Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona, would need theirs long-term reluctance – or downright resistance – to change the Senate procedure. But that can be a long shot. Sinema for their part supposedly colleagues said that she was against it any Movement to change the 60-vote threshold while Manchin signaled openness, only for modest rule changes. So, assuming none of the senators stir, why are the Democrats picking this up again?
The obvious answer is that the party, his supporters and Voting rights activists would like to see movement on this issue. And if there is even a slim chance that Manchin and Sinema will miraculously change their stance on the filibuster, the party wants to capitalize on it. However, several political scientists I spoke to warned that efforts to move a voting bill forward could be largely symbolic at this point.
It will likely be one-sided too. Note that in the mid to late 19th approved by bipartisan votes. It is also likely that if the voting laws succeed today, the case would not be any different. “We’re back to a moment when only one party is a full defender of voting rights,” said Daniel Ziblatt, a government professor at Harvard University. “Unfortunately, this puts us in a situation where one party has to act alone.”
But even if the Democrats cannot adopt the right to vote, they can at least establish themselves as a party for democracy and the right to vote. The question is, will that be enough for their base? At least one expert told me that the party risks looking useless, if not useless, if it cannot deliver.
“You don’t get any points for trying; You get points for success, “said Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Professor of Law at Harvard Law School. “So the party base that cares about the franchise will not care that the Democrats tried and failed. If anything, they will be irritated and disappointed if the bill attracts a lot of attention and still does not go through. “
On the other hand, other experts I’ve spoken to have said that Democrats don’t have much to lose if they try. Especially now, after the first anniversary of January 6th, there is a real window for Democrats to show their commitment to upholding American suffrage. That could also be a winning message for the party and stand out from the Republicans, who recently passed a number of state-level laws designed to restrict electoral access.
“We live in a precarious time, and Democrats in Congress must not allow these procedural rules to stand in the way of strengthening democracy, particularly with regard to the right to vote,” said Spencer Overton, Professor of Law at George Washington University Law School and President of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. “If we don’t step on the table and people don’t try to uphold democracy, we will end up in a situation where there is a minority of people who control the country and that minority will not reflect themselves Diversity of our nation. ”
One of Schumer’s bills hopes to get through the Senate – that Freedom of Choice Act – is a slimmed-down version of the omnibus For the people’s law. Supported by all Senate Democrats, this latest bill would, among other things, lay down guidelines for automatic voter registration, protection against electoral subversion and prevention of partisan gerrymandering. (To learn more about this and other bills the Democrats are considering, see this article by my colleague Nathaniel Rakich.) However, in October, when the bill was last passed by Congress, the Senate Republicans closed More filibuster consideration of the measure before it could have the floor to debate. Since then, the GOP has shown little willingness to negotiate, which means that the Democrats will have to pass the measure on their own.
One thing that is now working in favor of the Democrats is that the bill – and the passing of electoral reform measures in general – continues to be popular with the public. When likely voters were given a brief description of the Freedom to Vote Act, 85 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of Republicans said they strongly or somewhat support it, according to September Data for progress Opinion poll. In addition, approval remained overwhelmingly high as all respondents learned more about the various provisions of the bill. And strikingly after a December University of Massachusetts Amherst According to polls, most Americans said it was them against Partial interference in elections: 61 to 19 percent of them refused to make it easier for state parliaments to change election results if they were of the opinion that there were problems.
Timing is probably another reason we’re hearing about voting rights again. Schumer’s announcement coincided with two important dates that align well with pro-democracy priorities: the first anniversary of the January 6 attack and Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Even the royal family urged the public not to celebrate the holiday when Congress fails to pass a voting law. It is also possible given the most recent President Biden failed to pass the Build Back Better Act and the upcoming midterm elections where Democrats are simply running out of options to actively pursue.
According to Charles Stewart III, Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Democrats have little to lose if they keep increasing the franchise. “The chances of getting the math are definitely slim, but the chances are zero if you don’t try,” he said. Stewart pointed to past research As a result, most voters don’t know – or don’t care – the legislative process. Hence, any action taken by the Democrats signals that they mean business and provides a way for the Democrats to differentiate themselves from the Republicans. Even if the Democrats fail, Stewart added Biden’s approval ratings are already falling, so a Hail Mary play on the subject might be the party’s best pick. “If that fails, there will be articles written along the lines of ‘Here’s another Biden initiative that goes on fire’.” But I think that won’t hurt Everyone so much because there have been so many of these stories. And that’s still better than the alternative where the Democrats just sneak in front of the fight. ”
And to be clear, this is not the first time a political party has tried to pass laws without a clear majority on board. Indeed, the efforts of the Democrats today could be compared to the repeated attempts – and failures – of Republicans to stamp out the Affordable Care Act. But during Health system reform and certain health insurance measures typically enjoys bipartisan support, certain electoral and civil rights laws was historically one-sided. That poses an even bigger challenge for Democrats this year when you consider that they only have a simple majority in the Senate and need the approval of every parliamentary group member to get the legislation through.
In essence, what this means is that Democrats can’t have defectors on their side if they want to let voting pass. But while the party appears to be in agreement on the right to vote, there is no consensus on crushing the filibuster to pass the law.
An idea that was presented alongside the passage of a massive voting rights law was Reform of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, whose loopholes and ambiguities allowed Trump and his supporters to halt the vote count to prevent Biden from rightly assuming the presidency. “I could imagine a world where this is the lowest common denominator of the agreement between the two parties – which they would obviously need if the filibuster didn’t split off,” said Sarah Binder, Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. “It’s a potential sweet spot that both parties may be interested in coming to the table.” But it’s clear from the White House recent opinion on the matter that potential negotiations on the ECA will not deter the Democrats from their greater ambitions to achieve electoral reform.
This brings us back to the Freedom to Vote Act, which the Democrats are currently prioritizing. Of course there is also in the world in which it passes Research that suggests it doesn’t go far enough solely to counteract the various bills that were passed by the Republican-dominated legislators last year, which effectively make voting more difficult. But these flaws alone are unlikely to prevent Democrats from presenting themselves as pro-democracy so that they can contrast their willingness to fight extremism and voter polarization of Republicans. And that could be enough, according to Overton from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. “The people who undermine minority voting rights are not afraid of what they will look like,” he said [to] the plate and be brave? “