“This late vote won’t be as solidly Democratic as it was in 2018, even if it breaks Democratic,” said Paul Mitchell, a non-partisan data guru in California.
“The Republicans decided to vote later, but the Democrats also decided to vote earlier,” he said. “In a situation like this, it’s harder to imagine a way in which this late tail of the voice can be extremely democratic.”
Democrats are most pessimistic about Rouda, a freshman who beat Republican Michelle Steel with around 4,800 votes in his Orange County district. In a nearby seat that spans parts of Los Angeles, Orange County and San Bernardino, Cisneros is behind Republican Young Kim with around 2,500 votes.
In a seat in north Los Angeles, GOP MP Mike Garcia narrowly leads Democrat Christy Smith in a rematch of their special elections in May. This is likely the Democrats’ best chance of hitting a fourth pickup – but the final margin is likely to be close.
Bustos said in a report that she was “cautiously optimistic” about McAdams, a freshman who narrowly leads former NFL player Republican Burgess Owens. The party believes that Salt Lake County, McAdams’ stronghold, has more outstanding ballots than Utah County, which is more red.
The country’s closest house race could take place in an open field in southwest Iowa, where Democrat Rita Hart leads Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks by just 162 votes in a race that is almost certainly heading for a recount.
In New York, over half a dozen races are left uncalled. While postal ballot papers might favor Democrats there, the GOP nominees have massive headstart on the seats in Rose, Brindisi, and an open GOP seat on Long Island. (Even Democratic MP Tom Suozzi is following his Republican opponent in a race that has drawn little outside attention or spending, though he will likely prevail if absenteeism arrive.)
Republicans loved it this week. In a press conference Wednesday afternoon, the Chairman of the Republican National Congress Committee, Tom Emmer (Minn.), Mocked Democrats for their optimistic predictions and bad news.
“Cheri Bustos laughed in my face as I made the argument that the Democrats’ socialist agenda was going to cost them seats during a panel we both attended in Austin, Texas in September 2019 – where they didn’t turn around, by the way one seat, ”said Emmer.
The latest DCCC memo was sent to members after Bustos and other top Democrats held an emotional three-hour caucus call on Thursday in which some lawmakers blamed as they processed the string of losses – even as Democrats increased the presidency conquer.
In response to the call, Bustos stated that the campaign arm would be performing an autopsy in the coming weeks. No Democrats on the call directly criticized Bustos or any other Democrat for the losses, though some in the caucus have begun private queues to join her as chairwoman. Bustos has not said if she will run for the position again.
Rep Tony Cárdenas (Calif.) Has told members he’s interested in running, and Reps Linda Sánchez (Calif.), Marc Veasey (Texas) and Sean Patrick Maloney (NY) are also in the mix, according to multiple Democratic sources.
The DCCC faces a litany of criticism, from its spending decisions to its Latino reach to its polls. While health care once again remained a central theme in voting campaigns, Democratic candidates and outside groups brought their GOP opponents to Trump in dozens of television commercials in districts from Texas to Illinois that the president likely wore.
Swing District Democrats – many of them fell short of expectations in their own races – said they privately raised the alarm over the party’s anti-Trump news which they believed hurt in areas like New York state, Staten Island and Miami would have.
Shalala, who has a seat in South Florida that Trump lost 20 points in 2016, said her polls had failed to figure out how damaging the GOP’s “socialism” attacks could be. But those tags – along with allegations that Democrats disappointed the police in widespread protests against racial injustice and police brutality – have “caught on”.
“It’s not just Biden, it’s the entire democratic establishment that has to work these districts consistently,” said Shalala. “We hadn’t worked on it for over a generation. It just takes a lot of work. Could we have done more? Absolutely.”
Progressive Democrats have denied every hint from the centrist flank of the caucus about the party’s 2020 message.
MEP Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.), a member of the progressive “cadre”, argued that the moderates have indeed steered much of the legislative agenda for the past two years – the reality of a house-democratic majority with tight margins likely to be will only shrink in the 117th Congress.
“They were very centered and prioritized … Nobody really alarmed me about how they were feeling about their race,” Ocasio-Cortez said in an interview.
Ocasio-Cortez also blamed the Democratic campaign arm for not listening to different points of view on how to be successful, as he struggled with Latino and black workers at the highest levels.
“The Democratic Party has a problem with mostly white strategists who then export their implicit prejudices into a national macro-level strategy,” she said. “And that’s catastrophic.”
The New York Democrat hasn’t tapped a Latino chief’s prospect in the next cycle, but said any leader would need to address issues deeper than representation.
“I think the problem is less,” Are you hiring a Latino person? “It’s like this isn’t resolved at all,” she said. “If this conversation is more about names than actual changes in strategy and policy, it won’t be effective.”
Laura Barrón– –López and Heather Caygle contributed to this report.