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Iowa Could Make Joe Biden President, and Give Him a Democratic Senate to Work With

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Dubuque, Iowa– After Donald Trump overwhelmingly defeated Iowa in 2016, the prospects for a democratic comeback in the historic swing state did not look good. Perhaps, the Republican agent happily suggested, the historic swing state was on its way to becoming the more reliable Republican plains states to the west. After the 2016 election, Iowa had a Republican governor, two Republican U.S. Senators, a Republican-dominated U.S. House delegation, and it had just backed the Republican candidate for president by a greater margin than it had secured in Texas. Trump won 93 of the 99 counties of Iowa. While Barack Obama held his own in rural areas of 53 counties in 2008 and 38 in 2012, Hillary Clinton passed just a handful of urban centers and university towns where voters waved the blue flag.

The trend lines looked bad. The Chicago Tribune watched, “Iowa, the epicenter of the Republican boom in 2014 and 2016, is not an obvious place for a Democratic comeback. “When the 2020 competition took shape a year ago, every major suggested Trump would hit a Democratic ticket under the leadership of Joe Biden. In many polls, the Republican Senator Joni Ernst had achieved an easy victory. Ernst looked so strong that the state’s best-known Democrats passed the Senate’s race

However, with the November 3rd election less than two weeks away, the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has Biden at 47.5 percent to 46.3 percent for Trumpand democrat Theresa Greenfield at 47.4 percent to 42.5 percent for Ernst.

The numbers have made Trump, Ernst and their strategists desperate. Fresh from his Covid quarantine, the President came to Des Moines last week to attend a rally dubbed the “TRUMP COVID SUPERSPREADER EVENT” by the Iowa Rural America 2020 group. Trump fondly remembered winning Iowa in 2016 –while inflating his margin of victory– and asked voters to stay with him. “Get your friends, get your family, get your neighbors, get your workers and coworkers, and get the hell to vote because if I don’t get Iowa I won’t believe it,” called the President. His desperation was confirmed by Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, who, like the President, was accused of mistreating the coronavirus pandemic. “Don’t believe the polls,” Reynolds, an aging crowd of largely exposed Iowans, “don’t believe what the media is telling you.”

Believe it. Iowa could back Biden and send a Democrat to the Senate. The epicenter of the 2016 republican boom could become the epicenter of a democratic comeback. It is true that Iowa is a small populous state with only six votes. Nevertheless, it plays a major role in the thinking of the Biden strategists. If the former Vice President Iowa wins, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t win the neighboring battlefield states of Minnesota and Wisconsin, which are essential to Trump’s re-election strategy – and where polls now leave Republican behind, as do polls from the equally essential States of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

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